Active Weather (and Finally, a Chance of Snow)

Okay, I guess I got your attention with that title. The weather will be a bit more active in the next few days (through about the middle of next week, or about April 7 or 8). One system will be bringing mostly rain to eastern North Dakota and the far northwestern corner of Minnesota today and Friday. Parts of north-central Minnesota (including Grand Rapids) may see a few showers from this system as well. The system may draw enough cold air into it that there will be a chance of mixed precipitation as the system exits late Friday and early Saturday. Temperatures will slowly return to levels closer to average for this time of year.

There will be a couple days break with Easter Sunday and Monday bringing relatively nice weather, although there may still be chances of some scattered rain.

A second storm system will enter the central U.S. late Tuesday and move east and northeast to the western Great Lakes by Thursday. This system has a better chance of bringing significant precipitation to northern Minnesota because it will have better access to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Just who sees the heaviest precipitation remains to be seen, however, as it's still too far ahead to forecast the exact track of the storm. This storm could also bring a risk of accumulating snow in some places, although hopefully not too much.

Where Was Our "Snowiest Month"?

The KAXE area will have a chance of rain on Saturday (March 27) and somewhat seasonal temperatures this weekend. The last few days of March will become quite warm, and we will be able to say that March came in like a lamb and also went out like a lamb! It's been close to our warmest on record and will certainly finish somewhere in the top five or ten. Consistent with the warm temperatures has been a total absence of measurable snowfall across all of Minnesota except for 0.2" at International Falls. The combination of near-record warmth and no snow may bring record-early ice-out to northern Minnesota lakes. The early ice-out records in north-central Minnesota are generally about a week into April. In particular, it is April 6 for Pokegama Lake in Grand Rapids-- set in the year 2000.

After seasonal temperatures Saturday and Sunday along with a chance of scattered areas of rain on Saturday, the weather will get warmer during this upcoming week. Highs should get at least into the 60s. Chances of rain and maybe a thunderstorm or two may return at the end of the week or around Easter Sunday. Round-the-clock above freezing temperatures and humidity will be favorable for rapid ice melt.

Colder

A cold airmass has moved in. Temperatures will actually be below average (for highs) for a couple days. No significant precipitation is in the forecast, but we are getting our first flakes in about a month (so much for the perfectly snow-free March). The storm track will remain along the Canadian border (north of the KAXE area) for the next week.

An interesting note: Oklahoma City has a chance to surpass our seasonal snowfall total with a storm they will be getting this weekend.

Another Warm Week, Storm Ahead?

A full week of temperatures above freezing, both day and night, has ended winter sports, at least until calendar spring, and made people think more about gardening and boating. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the 19th, and this would conceivably put us in the running for the warmest March on record-- due more to the persistence of the warmth-- we have not broken any record highs. Highs this coming week will be mostly in the 50s with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Right now, I'm doubtful we'll set a new warm March record because the weather pattern will change by the 19th as a storm system noves in from the southwest. Initially, this storm (if it reaches us) will bring rain, but it may end as snow.

It's uncertain how cold it might become after the next weekend (20-21), but it looks like our El Nino pattern will go away for a little while.

A Rainy Week Ahead, Winter Retrospective

I guess I should know better than to discount chances of precipitation. The storm system that looked to hit mostly the Dakotas this week will be close enough to provide rain for us, too, between Monday evening and Wednesday. Due to the very slow upper winds in the northern U.S. (a pretty typical El Nino pattern), the system will be moving slowly and will hang around for a while. The combination of warm temperatures (reaching near 50 during the day, probably not dropping below freezing at night) and rain will melt a majority of our snow this week.

The graph above shows that, on average, since 1980, snow during El Nino winters melts about two weeks early, and this year looks to be no exception-- it should follow the red line in the graph pretty closely. Considering that we've had a relatively strong El Nino, our snow depth and temperature have been really good this season. The average would be 10 inches, but we've had about 14 inches on the ground during a good part of the winter, and much of the rest of the state, particularly the North Shore highlands, and southern and western Minnesota, have had even more. I've recorded 28.2 inches snow this season, which is well below average, but the water content of the snow was relatively high, so in terms of frozen water equivalent on the ground, this winter is not far from average. That, and the absence of any major mid-winter thaws made this winter feel pretty much like an average one for this area. Our average winter temperature (Dec-Jan-Feb) was 12.2 degrees F, which is only slightly above average and a couple degrees below the expected value for an El Nino winter.

More Mild Weather

Temperatures will remain mild and the weather mostly dry for the next couple weeks. The basic pattern has not changed in a month. A split in the upper air flow over North America will keep storms away from north central and northeast Minnesota. There's a small chance one of the storms will move close enough to give us light rain about Wednesday, but for the most part, precipitation will be limited to those parts of the Upper Midwest that have the greatest risk of flooding-- the Red River Valley into southwestern and southern Minnesota.

Sometimes the best forecast is a hindcast.

-Bob

Still Quiet on the Weather Front

I can't say it's perfectly quiet. We did have 0.8" or 0.9" snow this week. However, there are no major storms in the Upper Midwest, and it will stay that way for at least the next week. Highs will be in the 30s and lows in the single digits above and below zero.