Weather Big Picture for March 2-8

(Friday evening update):

Scattered light snow showers will be possible tonight. A significant snowstorm will likely move into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, followed by very cold temperatures. The forecast track of this storm will certainly change, so it's not certain if we'll actually get significant snow. However, all available numerical weather prediction models presently indicate significant snowfall over at least part of northern Minnesota from this storm, so the chances of significant snow are greater than we've seen over any time during the past two months.

Temperatures at this time of year are tough to predict. The numerical weather prediction models are incapable of accounting for the warming effects of sunlight over snow-covered ground in late winter and early spring, so high temperatures often climb far above their predicted values. We may have subfreezing high temperatures Saturday, but highs may reach above freezing Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be dropping well below freezing at night, allowing for nice spring conditions on trails that aren't too exposed to direct sunlight.

(Original post):

This week will bring mostly dry weather with warming temperatures. Highs will be in the low 20s Monday, near freezing Tuesday, near 40 Wednesday, mid 30s to 40 Thursday, and mid 30s Friday. Low temperatures might stay above freezing Wednesday night and Thursday night, which would enhance any melting this week, but clearing skies at night would allow the snow to refreeze and really keep the melting in check. By this coming weekend (March 7/8), we should have subfreezing high temperatures again.

Enjoy the upcoming spring conditions!

Weather Big Picture for February 23-March 1

Thursday AM update:
Wow! The storm system snuck north a bit. Light snow will continue today and end by this evening. Accumulations will range from an inch in the far northern part of the area with several inches near Brainerd. Snows will be heavier in southern Minnesota with some local 8"+ likely in the Twin Cities. Temperatures will be below average late this week and into early next week.

Get your skiing in this week. At this time of year, melting conditions could arrive at just about any time. The numerical weather prediction models indicate a possibility of rain by March 4/5. Before then, conditions will be great for skiing.

(Original):

There will be no major weather pattern changes this week. The temperature will warm to near freezing on Tuesday and then cool off by the end of the week with highs in the teens and lows below zero. Occasional light snow will occur during the week as we will be in the "zone" where temperature contrast is largest (subzero weather just across the border in Canada, above freezing in southern Minnesota on Tuesday). However, there are no major storms looming. Overall, additional light snows on top of the refreshed snow pack we have in place now should make for some excellent skiing this week.

Weather Big Picture for February 9-15

Update (Saturday):

It's been six weeks since the last >1" snowfall in Grand Rapids. We could use one now, but the pattern remains unfavorable for the next couple weeks at least. Along the Canadian border, it's been an entirely different story. International Falls has doubled our snowfall this season, and they've been routinely getting 2" snowfalls. Perhaps Bemidji and Grand Rapids could see another light dusting (~0.1") on Monday as yet another system moves along the Canadian border to the North Shore with 2-4". On the positive side, we've still got snow (there's no snow left in southern Minnesota), and Boomer is grooming the trails. Temperatures will be below average this weekend with highs in the low teens recovering to near average (highs in the 20s) during the week.

Original (Sunday evening):
We'll be getting some rain this week in addition to a 36-48 hour period of melting snow. The high temperatures in the 30s on Friday and Sunday did not do much damage to the ski trails because the clear skies, low humidity, and brief period of warmth kept prevented much melting. This time, however, the persistent, cloudy, drizzly/rainy weather we are about to experience will definitely diminish the snow pack. I'm not sure how the groomers deal with this type of situation, but my best estimate is the temperature will climb above freezing Monday morning and hover in the 34-38 degree range until Tuesday night when it drops back to around freezing, but it could be as long as Wednesday evening before the temperature drops enough to refreeze things. Total rainfall will probably be about 0.5" in Grand Rapids. My guess is the snow depth in the woods will diminish from about 15-18" now to about 9-14" by Tuesday night. I'm not great at predicting snow melt, but I think there may some opportunity to groom the trails after this system if one gets out shortly after freezup and before the slush gets too hard. (FYI, I skied Suomi this weekend, and Boomer and company did a fantastic job there on Friday).

Thereafter, the rest of the week should be dry. Temperatures will fall to slightly below average by this weekend with highs in the teens and lows near zero. Looking farther ahead, the large scale pattern looks unfavorable for new snow.

Do be careful driving over the next couple days. Even if the air temperature is warm, the roads are still cold after a lot of subzero weather this winter, so driving may be quite icy-- especially on side roads.

Weather Big Picture for February 2-8 from Tornado Bob

Update (Feb 6 AM): hot on Friday, rain on Monday

The weather service says 36 for a high today, but I think it will be a lot warmer-- in the 40 to 50 degree range if we see any sun. Saturday will see a slight cooldown with a high in the mid 30s and a chance of flurries as a weak upper air disturbance passes through. Sunday will be a day between systems with highs near freezing.

Unfortunately, rain on Monday looks like a near certainty, and we'll be getting quite a bit. I hate to sound so pessimistic, but the large scale pattern screams "RAIN!!", and there's really nothing we can do about it. The low pressure center will track into northwestern Minnesota, and that will put the KAXE area on the warm side of the system. It would not surprise me to have thunderstorms as well in southern and central Minnesota. Believe it or not, I've seen more thunderstorms in Minnesota in February than snowstorms. February is just not typically a snowy month.

Once this upcoming rain passes, all indications are that we'll be in split flow, with the moisture staying well south of us and the cold air staying north. That would mean we'll have mild conditions and a slow, gradual melt throughout most of the rest of the month. Typical caveats to predicting weather beyond a week apply, but the upcoming pattern is usually a rather persistent one, so my bet is that February will end up warmer than average with below average snowfall.

Enjoy the spring conditions!

-Bob

Original (Feb 1):

My prediction for February 2 is that the ground hog will not see his shadow. It looks like spring might come early this year.

This week will be warmer than last week. We'll start out cold and windy, but temperatures really will only barely be below average. There will be a chance of snow showers very early in the week (early Monday), and the coldest temperatures in the subzero range (for lows) will occur Tuesday morning. Highs will be in the teens.

Another low pressure system will move to our north on Wednesday, bringing another shot of melting temperatures. Thereafter, it looks pretty uncertain what the temperature will do. Most indications are that we will have warm, cloudy, and drizzly weather, which can melt snow pretty quickly. There's a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts right now, so it's just about anybody's guess, but suffice it to say that the cold pattern we've been experiencing most of this winter is gone (at least for the next 10 days), and we'll probably end the week with a bit less snow than at the beginning. We'll have a chance of light rain late this week, and the warm and drizzly weather may continue into the following week, with occasional bouts of drizzle, rain, or wet snow interspersed with below freezing temperatures. To be honest, I'm really not sure what the long term will bring, but this is one of those patterns that can produce some very warm weather... or maybe not. The nonlinear behavior of the atmosphere (butterfly effect) will be on display over the next couple weeks.

Weather Picture for January 12-18 from Tornado Bob

1/16 update: moderate temps and light snow/flurries this weekend, thaw looking less likely next week.

Well, there has been some pretty warm air building over the Prairie Provinces of Canada, the Yukon, and Alaska. Any change from our cold, northerly upper air flow to a more westerly or northwesterly upper air flow would bring this warm airmass over Minnesota, but it looks like the northerly flow will be quite stubborn through Monday. The window of opportunity for a thaw will probably close about midweek as another surge of Arctic air descends to our latitude, and given the stubbornness of the northerly flow, it is conceivable that we could escape without a thaw and preserve our good snow conditions. We will have a chance of light snow or flurries throughout much of the weekend.

Thus, my earlier (worst case) prediction for melting snow and temperatures in the 40s is looking somewhat silly right now! As a skier, I find that to be good news.

(Original post) Bitter cold this week followed by a thaw early next week, then back in the deep freeze.

The cold airmass that has been residing in Canada for most of the winter so far will be getting "booted" out, so to speak, and will come blasting through the central U.S. A large amplification of the upper air pattern is occurring this week and is responsible for driving the coldest air in Alaska and Yukon southward toward us and replacing it with anomalously warm air (for Alaska and the Yukon). As this process occurs, our upstream air source becomes much warmer, and there is no way to avoid a warm spell.

Thus, we will have a fairly "typical" Arctic blast this week with some high temperatures near zero or in the single digits below zero and lows reaching the -20s and -30s (the coldest spots like Embarrass will probably reach -40). By this weekend, the warmer temperatures will begin to move in, and by Monday, we'll probably high high temperatures above freezing. It's rare to have this sort of pattern evolution without seeing temperatures reach into the 40s, so expect some melting to occur early next week. The warm spell will probably not last very long, as the medium range models are generally indicating a rapid return back to a cold and dry weather pattern by midweek. Often, these transitions happen a little more slowly than expected, so what I describe above may be delayed by a day or two.

As far as snowfall is concerned, we may have some light amounts Tuesday night as the last in a series of Alberta Clipper systems moves through southwestern Minnesota, immediately ahead of the coldest air, but we are generally in a dry pattern, and no major snowfalls are on the horizon.

Weather Picture for December 15-21 from Tornado Bob

Friday December 19 Update: Heavy lake effect snow on the North Shore, more snows this weekend over all of northern Minnesota

A lake-effect snow band is extending from Lake Superior between Silver Bay and Duluth to the Floodwood area at 8 AM this morning. This snow band dropped 5-8" between Duluth and Silver Bay and even provided a dusting to Grand Rapids overnight. Expect more heavy snow at the head of Lake Superior today.

A storm system will move into the area on Saturday and stall over us. The amount of liquid equivalent precipitation (melted down snow) will be less this weekend than last, but the snow will be fluffier, so we can expect to see amounts of 5-10" by the end of the weekend. The heaviest snowfall will occur on Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will remain below average through the middle of next week. Some moderation in temperature looks possible by the end of next week.

Overall, the general weather pattern looks to remain snowy after this weekend.

Original post (December 15):

The December 14 snowstorm dumped 8-12" across the KAXE listening area-- pretty much as expected. The great news about this snowfall is that the there is now plenty of snow for grooming and skiing. We've had about 18" in the past 10 days.

For the next week, we'll have some very cold weather with highs in the single digits above and below zero and lows in the teens and 20s below zero. We will have chances of light snow on Tuesday, on Thursday, and Friday night. A series of low pressure systems will pass well to our south (Kansas-Illinois), but each of these lows will feature a trough extending northward into Minnesota, and there will be a good north-south contrast in temperature that should allow these systems to wring out some snow from this bitterly cold airmass. The best chances of snow and the largest accumulations will probably be south of our area, but I would not be surprised to see a few more inches between now (Dec. 15) and December 22.

Weather Picture for December 8-14 From Tornado Bob

Sunday Evening December 14 update: totals of 6-12" expected

The band of heavy snow moved in just before noon, and it has dropped 6-10" of snow. That band is starting to move off, and it looks like we're within a couple of inches of our total from this storm (except if you are farther northeast near Ely, where it will snow hard for a few more hours). The subzero weather has arrived a little ahead of schedule, and the temperatures will drop further with strong north winds tonight. Expect only another inch or less near Bemidji, maybe an inch or two in Grand Rapids, and perhaps as much as six inches more in Ely.

We go into the deep freeze after this storm passes, with highs in the single digits above and below zero and lows in the teens and 20s below zero. Expect a few of the colder locations to reach -30 F or colder. Two systems will pass mostly south of us on Tuesday and Friday, hitting southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. There is some chance of light snows in our area, particularly from Friday's system.

National Weather Service Duluth web page:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dlh/

Minnesota snow depth maps:
http://climate.umn.edu/doc/snowmap.htm

Posted Monday December 8:

We received 4 to 5 inches of snow in the Grand Rapids area over the weekend. Although it was fairly light and not the greatest for making a trail base, it gets us closer to where we need to be, and we are quite happy to receive it (at least I am)! Up to this past weekend, I had been frustrated by seeing a lot of snowfalls miss us, but the parade of small, light snow-producing systems in northwesterly flow continues, and it just so happens that a couple of them finally hit us in northern Minnesota.

The weather will continue to be active over the next week. We have some scattered snow in the area today (Monday December 8) from a storm system that will reorganize well to our south and mostly hit southern Minnesota. Then, we have one or two more of these light snow-producing systems headed through the area from Alberta, Canada. The strongest of these looks to come through on Wednesday, and this system will most likely produce another inch or two of snow (maybe a little more in some areas and less in others).

After the system comes through on Wednesday, the upper level flow will start coming more from the southwest, and that will provide a better chance for heavier, more significant snows in Minnesota, most likely some time this coming weekend (December 13-14). Weather predictability is not very good that far out, but on a large scale, the basic ingredients will be in place: plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and a bitterly cold Arctic airmass settling in over the plains of Canada, setting the stage for a "clash of the airmasses" somewhere over the north central U.S. Stay tuned! I'm sure I'll be updating the blog as this weekend comes closer.

Weather Big Picture From "Tornado Bob"

We've gotten off to a really slow start to the snow season in northern Minnesota, but it looks like our snow chances will begin to improve. A weak disturbance moving southeast out of Manitoba on Friday evening (December 5) will bring us a somewhat heavier version of the snow showers we've experienced over the past several weeks. This will only be enough to provide up to about an inch of snow. Another light snow-maker will move in late Sunday (December 7), and perhaps another on Wednesday (December 10), but then it looks like we'll have a better chance of more significant snows as the weather pattern is beginning to look more favorable by around December 14 (although that is a long ways out to forecast). Stay tuned, and keep your fingers crossed! For the short term, we will have excellent snow-making conditions, so any area that is capable of making snow should have great conditions!

Editor's note: "Tornado Bob" is Bob Conzemius. Bob is a weather research scientist with Wind Logics in Grand Rapids. Bob is an avid skier who will provide weather commentary and updates from time to time . Bob also does regular weather commentary on KAXE's Morning Show.