Fall Has Arrived

Sunday September 27, 2009

A cold front swept through the KAXE listening area this morning, and it has finally brought some seasonal temperatures for this time of year. Up until now, September has been the warmest month of 2009 with an average temperature, in some locations, warmer than the average temperature for July. Temperatures have been on pace to set a record for the warmest September, but the last three days of the month will have below average temperatures, so it's uncertain whether we'll actually break the record. I'm thinking we won't.

As I write this, Grand Rapids still has a shot at its driest September on record. The total in my rain guage this month has been 0.40" as of late this evening. The record is 0.54". It's possible the guage at the cooperative station has received more than my amount, but whatever the case, we're not likely to get any significant rain over the next three days, so there's a good chance we'll end up with the record. Temperatures will be slightly below average, and we may see a little frost Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning.

As October rolls in, a storm system will move into the central United States and may give us a chance of significant rain. There is some possibility the storm will stall to our southwest, leaving us dry, but hopefully it will stall close enough to give us a chance of rain. We could use it. We've been in a split flow pattern for the past month with the rainy weather staying to our south and the cold weather staying to our north-- the typical pattern for El Nino-- and it could be a prelude to the winter of 2009-2010. The depth and duration of snow cover may not be as good as it was last winter, but the temperature should be a bit warmer, making it easier to get outside.

Stagnant Pattern

I just had 0.19" on September 21, so I am at 0.23" for the month. We need another 0.31" to crawl out of last place for September. We may actually get close to that on Tuesday 9/22. The latest storm system is stalling out a little closer to us than earlier anticipated, so our chances of rain have improved!

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It looks like it could be a long time before we see any pattern change. Northern Minnesota has been underneath a very large upper level ridge of high pressure for the past three weeks. This high has been so strong, in fact, that any storm that tries to approach our area has stalled in the Dakotas, moved back westward, or dissipated completely. Consequently, we are on track to have our driest September on record. The present record stands at 0.54" in 1967, and so far (through September 19), we've only managed 0.04" according to my rain guage. With no rain in the foreseeable future (about 7-10 days), it looks like we will probably blow away the record.

The past month, we've seen only two thirds of an inch, which is near a record level for that time period. Our climate has definitely taken a shift toward more dryness.

The present pattern is one we usually get during moderate to strong El Ninos, so you should get used to this pattern.