Quiet and Cold Weather

Our midwinter quiet stretch has begun. The Upper Midwest will be under the influence of high pressure for the next 10 days or more. Temperatures will fluctuate but be mostly below average for this time of year.

XC SKI TRAIL GROOMING REPORT - Sunday, December 27th

We're grateful for the big snow but with the high moisture it makes grooming challenging. The volunteer groomers are giving it their best shot so here's the tentative grooming report:

Sugar Hills and Blueberry Hills packed and tracked December 26. The parking lot at Blueberry is plowed but more than likely the other lots have not been plowed.
Joyce Estate and Trout Lake to be packed and tracked today.
Legion Hills to be packed and tracked tonight.
Cowhorn and River Road trails are scheduled to be packed tomorrow, Monday.
Forest History Center parking lot was not plowed so no grooming could be done.

NOTE: Blueberry Hills closed Tuesday, the 29th for High School Race.

Boomer the Groomer

Snow Hole

11:30 PM December 24.

The shadow effect of the North Shore ridge will be felt in Grand Rapids, Warba, and points northeastward toward Ely. As the air flows northwestward up the hill in Duluth, the moisture is rapidly wrung out of the air. This leaves less moisture available for places 30 - 80 miles northwest of the North Shore. Additionally, there is an area of sinking motion downstream from the ridge, which further dries the air and prevents precipitation. These effects may substantially reduce total snowfall in Grand Rapids, Ely, Warba, and areas along and just southeast of the Iron Range. It would not surprise me if total snowfall was as little as 3 or 4" in Grand Rapids.

Well see...

Heavy Snow and Wind Dec. 24-26

Heavy, wet snow and wind is likely Dec. 24-26. A strong storm system will move from eastern Oklahoma Wednesday evening to central Iowa by midday Friday. Pretty much any place in northern Minnesota has at least a chance of receiving a foot or more of snow. Places east and southeast from Grand Rapids have a chance of seeing some mixed precipitation, particularly in northwest Wisconsin.

This storm will make travel difficult over all of Minnesota, but it will very likely bring us the start of our (natural snow) ski season.

Significant Snowfall Becoming More Likely Dec. 24-25

The model forecast tracks for the major storm system that will be moving through the central U.S. over Christmas have shifted to the northwest, and it is beginning to look like most of Minnesota may see moderate to heavy snowfall from this system. The most likely area for heavy snow is still southern Minnesota, where snow totals in the 10-20 inch range look likely. In northern Minnesota, amounts of 5-8" are now becoming a possibility.

The low pressure center will move from near Dallas, TX early Wednesday evening to just south of Des Moines, IA by Friday morning. Snow will begin Wednesday afternoon in southern Minnesota and will probably reach the far northeastern part of Minnesota by late Thrusday evening. The heaviest snow will occur during the early part of the storm, but since the storm will be moving slowly, light snow may persist into Saturday.

Temperatures will cool down behind the storm, but they do not look extremely cold, and we may see warmer than average temperatures by the beginning of January.

Some snow possible Thursday/Friday Dec. 24/25

A major storm system this week may take a similar track to the one that hit southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin two weeks ago. This time, the exact track is more heavily dependent on the interaction of smaller scale weather disturbances, and that means there is a bit more uncertainty. There is also more warm air ahead of the storm, so areas such as Iowa that got all snow with the last storm may see a bit of sleet and freezing rain.

For northern Minnesota, accumulations will be heaviest to the southeast and lightest to the northwest. My initial guess is that Duluth will see 3-6", 1-3" will fall in Grand Rapids, 2-5" in Brainerd, and up to an inch will fall in Bemidji. There will be quite a bit of wind with this system as well, so that may make things feel a bit stormier than the snowfall amounts indicate.

After the storm passes, expect a day or two of colder weather, then dry weather and seasonable to mild temperatures for the rest of the holiday period.

Variable Temperatures, Little or No Snowfall Dec 12-22

The jet stream has settled into its midwinter quiet pattern, and the storm track is well to our south. Although predictability is rather low beyond a few days, I do not expect snowfall for several weeks, aside from perhaps an occasional dusting.

Temperatures will be quite variable over the next 10 days, with highs struggling to reach zero on Sunday (Dec. 13). Temperatures will also be cold on Tuesday Dec. 15, but then a warming trend will begin. Expect average to slightly above average temperatures to prevail by Dec. 18.

Southern Minnesota will see a 2-3" snowfall on Monday (Dec. 14), which should bring natural snow depth to a skiable level in the Twin Cities area. Southeastern Minnesota has up to 12" depth now, and northwestern Wisconsin near Lake Superior has snow depth in excess of a foot in places.

Light Snow Tuesday-Wednesday, Major Snowstorm Southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin

UPDATED FORECAST:

Northwest of Walker-Grand Rapids-Virginia line, accumulations will be minimal to nonexistent.

A dusting up to an inch is possible along the aforementioned line, 2-4" possible Brainerd to Duluth, 5-8" in Twin Cities. Amounts will increase rapidly going into Wisconsin and Southeast Minnesota, where amounts in excess of 8 inches (some totals well over a foot) are likely.

Beyond this storm, snowfall will be minimal for several weeks.

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OLD FORECAST:
The KAXE area (particularly in southeastern parts of the area) will be getting more snow on Tuesday-Wednesday. Accumulations will probably be in the 1-3" range in Grand Rapids, 3-6" in Brainerd, an inch or less in Bemidji, up to 6" in Duluth. Northwest Wisconsin may see more than 8 inches, and blizzard conditions may strike southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Basically, the snow will be heavier the farther southeast you go. Northwestern Minnesota will probably miss this storm.

Temperatures will fall to below zero for lows with single digits and teens for highs this week. The wind chill on Wednesday will become an issue, too.

More snow possible

It's amazing how light snow showers add up. We've got about an inch on the ground now. That doesn't seem like much, but we've got cold air in place now, and that usually means better chances of snowfall. One storm in particular will be passing southeast of us midweek next week (December 9-10). The heaviest snows associated with this storm will most likely be well southeast of us, but if the storm takes a more northwestward track we could get several inches as well. Either way, things will continue to be a lot more wintry than they were in late November. Temperatures will remain slightly below average.

Snowfall Reports from 12/1

5.7" INTERNATIONAL FALLS
5.5" BAUDETTE
5.3" ROSEAU
4.6" KABETOGAMA
3.5" LITTLEFORK
3.4" 3 E ORR
3.0" COOK
2.9" ELY
2.5" 7 NW BEMIDJI
2.0" TOWER
1.6" NORTHOME
1.0" 5 N VIRGINIA
1.0" EMBARRASS
0.1" GRAND RAPIDS

Other than occasional flurries or lake-effect snow downwind from big lakes (like Lake of the Woods), no further snow is in the forecast until at least 12/9.

Excellent Snow-Making Conditions on the Way (natural snowfall too along Canadian border)

Temperatures will be up and down quite a bit this week, but gradually, we will be getting into a much colder pattern. Expect slightly below average temperatures by midweek then warmer temperatures again for a brief time this coming weekend (Dec. 5). Arctic air will pour into the region next week (Dec 6-10) with low temperatures in the subzero range and highs no warmer than the teens above zero. This will make for excellent snow-making conditions.

There is a chance of natural snowfall as well-- mostly north of Grand Rapids. A system will pass just north of Highway 2 on Tuesday with several inches of snow possible along the Canadian border. If the storm were to track a little farther south, accumulation would be possible along Highway 2 as well. Another system will pass through on Saturday (12/1 update: nevermind about Saturday-- looks dry now).

12/1 Snow Forecast Update: 6" in International Falls, 2-3" BigFork and Effie, 0.1-0.5" Grand Rapids and Bemidji, 0" in Brainerd. Other than light snow showers later in the week, this will probably be our only chance of significant snow for the next 7-10 days at least.

Weather for Thanksgiving Travel and Beyond

Significant snow is unlikely for the KAXE area for the next week, but if you travel to the east (Wisconsin or the far northeastern or southeastern corners of Minnesota), some accumulating snow may be possible Wednesday night. Temperatures will cool back to just above average for Thanksgiving, warm up again on Friday, then cool off again by the end of the weekend.

I expect snowfall to be minimal through December and encourage any ski areas with snow-making capability to take advantage of any temperatures below freezing.

Historical Snow Depth Comparisons for Grand Rapids

The following image shows the comparison of average snow depth for Grand Rapids since 1980 for phases of ENSO: El Nino (warm), Neutral, and La Nina (cold). We are in an El Nino this season.


A better statistical comparison could be made by looking at more years. We have good data going back to 1950, but the winters 1950 through 1979 generally had deeper snow than those more recently. The following graph compares the 1950 through 1979 period with the most recent 30 winters.



The differences between the two sets of years are most likely due to a combination of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (a multi-decade climate cycle) and anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming.

Weather Big Picture November 19-29: more of the same

Mild conditions will continue for the next 10 days. It looks like the probabilities of a really warm pattern will be decreasing, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will cool down. It just means that we're not as certain about a warm pattern for late next week as we were for this week. Either way, the chances for widespread, significant snow are very small over the next 10 days. That's good for Thanksgiving travel.

The other good news is that, although daytime highs will be above freezing, the nighttime temperatures will generally be favorable for snowmaking, so places such as Mt. Itasca that can make snow will generally be able to do so. There may be a period early Thanksgiving week that the nighttime temperatures could stay above freezing, but otherwise, the clear nights under high pressure are favorable for cold temperatures (good for snowmaking) and calm winds (good for making ice on lakes).

Snowmaking opportunities Nov. 15-18.

Conditions will become marginally favorable for nighttime snowmaking between Saturday night (Nov 14-15) and Wednesday night (Nov 18-19) with lows in the 20s to around 30. Keep those snow guns in low-lying areas to avoid above-freezing temperatures, and take steps to protect snow from melting during the day and later in the week. By the end of next week, round-the-clock above freezing temperatures will resume for at least a couple days. There's some hint of a change to a slightly colder pattern by Thanksgiving, but I don't trust that forecast yet.

Big Weather Picture: Nov. 11-17

Warmer than average temperatures will continue for the next week. Today (Nov. 11) and Thursday will have warm, cloudy, and windy weather with chances of rain, mostly in northwestern Minnesota on Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 40s to near 50 with lows near 40. Rain chances will continue Friday as a cold front enters the area and temperatures drop. We'll have slightly cooler weather this weekend and into next week with highs mostly in the 40s and lows dropping just below freezing.

This mild weather pattern is likely to persist most of the winter. I certainly hope I'm wrong! For the time being, the large scale pattern looks unfavorable for wintry conditions through November 24.

Persistent mild weather as El Nino takes charge

The large scale pattern that is typically associated with El Nino has arrived. The cold patterns that have been dominating our weather over much of the past two years are gone and may not return for several months. El Nino refers to a large area of warmer than normal ocean temperatures along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. See the following link for more information:

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

The area of warmer than normal water is large enough that it affects the global atmospheric circulation. Thus, El Nino can have a strong impact on winter temperatures in Minnesota, more often making them significantly warmer than average.

Out of 18 El Nino winters since 1950, winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) temperatures in Grand Rapids have been above average 11 times and below average 7 times. The average Grand Rapids winter temperature for all years since 1950 is 11.2 degrees F. During El Nino events, the mean winter temperature has been 13.1 degrees F, nearly 2 degrees above average. The warmest of the El Nino events was in 1997-1998 when Grand Rapids winter temperature averaged over 22 degrees F, which is also Grand Rapids' warmest winter on record. This winter will see the strongest El Nino since the 1997-98 event. It is interesting to note that during the 1960s and 1970s, most El Nino winters were below average in temperature, so we're not guaranteed a warm winter, but since 1980, all of them have been warm, so my bet will be on warm temperatures (that's the global trend anyway).

As far as snow is concerned, snowfall tends to be below average: 47.9 inches during El Nino seasons versus 59.9 for all others (since 1950). 56.3" has been the average snowfall for all winters (including El Nino) since 1950. Out of 18 El Nino winters, 15 had less than this average. However, there have been exceptions. The winters of 1966, 1969, and 1970 all had over 70 inches of snow. The primary reason for reduced snowfall is the split flow in the jet stream, which keeps the cold air to the north of Minnesota and the storm track mostly to the south.

For the deer hunting rifle opener, we'll have mild weather with temperature in the 50s. If we get more sun than forecast, the airmass will be warm enough for temperatures in the 60s, but 50s looks more likely at this point. Sunday will see warm, sunnier weather with temperatures in the 50s. Thereafter, the weather should be mostly dry and mild through about November 15, and the mild pattern will likely persist through at least November 20 and perhaps the rest of the winter.

Big Weather Picture Oct. 30-Nov 7

Wet Pattern on the Way Out

The large storm system will be leaving our area today (Friday Oct 30), and seasonably cool air will fill in behind it. We'll have some wind Friday and Saturday, but things will calm down after that.

For most of the Nov 1-5 period, the weather looks a bit drier-- only light precipitation is expected. Temperatures will be near average to slightly below average with highs in the upper 30's to low 40's and lows mostly in the 20's.

By the deer rifle opening weekend, an El Nino-induced mild weather pattern will begin. I expect this to be the beginning of a very long and persistent mild pattern that could last most of the winter. We shall see. For one, the Farmer's Almanac does not agree with me.

Big Weather Picture Oct 20-27

More Wet Snow Possible

The weather will remain rather wintry or late fall-like this week as another low pressure area passes to our southeast, bringing us a cold rain and some wet snow. If the precipitation is heavy enough, it may change to all snow with some accumulations. I have not had a chance to look at things in great detail since I'm out of the country.

After this system passes on Wednesday, the weather will remain on the cool side of normal. The cool pattern looks to persist for at least the next week.

If this goes like a typical El Nino winter, we'll transition to a mild pattern sometime in late November. Quite likely, we'll be in the strongest El Nino since the '97-'98 winter, so the effects will probably be noticeable. Overall, I expect warm temperature and lighter than average snowfall during Dec-Jan-Feb. However, any El Nino winter can be punctuated by the occasional winter storm and a cold outbreak, making people forget the mild conditions. I'm hoping for a well-timed heavy snowfall in early December or late November to put down a good cross-country ski base for the rest of the season.

-Bob

Big Weather Picture: Oct. 12-18

The weather this coming week may be best described as "dull". We will have mostly mostly cloudy weather with occasional chances of light snow or rain as warm air attempts to move in from the southwest and our cold high pressure attempts to remain in place. Liquid equivalent precipitation may be 0.15" to 0.30". Highs will be in the 30s and 40s most of the week with lows in the 20s and 30s. The main storm track remains mostly to our south and west like it has for the past couple months. By the second half of this coming weekend (17th/18th), we'll have breezy conditions and temperatures returning to average for this time of year (near 50 for highs).

Thanks to the Volunteers at Sugar Hills

We had twelve hard working volunteers clearing the cross country ski trails at Sugar Hills. The snow and wind didn't slow these folks down. The trails are in now in great shape for the upcoming ski season. Thanks again, Boomer the Groomer

Good morning! The Northern Lights Nordic Ski Club is having a trail clearing party this Saturday (October 10th) at 9:00 a.m. at Sugar Hills Ski Area and everyone is invited! Bring gloves, handtools and chainsaws and help prepare the trails for the upcoming ski season. Call Boomer at 326.4942 with any questions. Let's meet at the Starter Shack for home made muffins, see you then, thanks.

Colder Weather on the Way, First Flakes by Friday

The early part of this week will essentially be a repeat of last week with a significant storm system moving just to our south. Again, the most rain will fall across central and southern Minnesota with amounts in excess of an inch likely in the Twin Cities, St. Cloud, Little Falls, and Morris. We sure could use those amounts here because we're about six inches short on moisture for 2009, although the Twin Cities needs it worse-- before last weeks rains, they were 14-16 inches short on moisture since June 1, 2008!

Expect rain to start Monday evening, persist throughout the nighttime and daytime Tuesday, and move out of the area Tuesday evening. Places along the Canadian border from International Falls westward may not see any rain, and amounts will be larger to the south, with nearly an inch possible in Brainerd. 0.25" looks like the most probable amount in Grand Rapids.

We'll have a brief break on Wednesday, then a strong cold front will sweep through Wednesday night, bringing a chance of showers. An Arctic air mass will then pour into the region and settle in through the upcoming weekend. Cold air aloft, combined with warmth and moisture provided by the open lakes, will produce some instability in the atmosphere, resulting in scattered rain and snow showers from Thursday through Sunday. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s. The upcoming pattern looks like a repeat of what we had over the summer except that it is now fall, and that means some freezing weather.

Fall Has Arrived

Sunday September 27, 2009

A cold front swept through the KAXE listening area this morning, and it has finally brought some seasonal temperatures for this time of year. Up until now, September has been the warmest month of 2009 with an average temperature, in some locations, warmer than the average temperature for July. Temperatures have been on pace to set a record for the warmest September, but the last three days of the month will have below average temperatures, so it's uncertain whether we'll actually break the record. I'm thinking we won't.

As I write this, Grand Rapids still has a shot at its driest September on record. The total in my rain guage this month has been 0.40" as of late this evening. The record is 0.54". It's possible the guage at the cooperative station has received more than my amount, but whatever the case, we're not likely to get any significant rain over the next three days, so there's a good chance we'll end up with the record. Temperatures will be slightly below average, and we may see a little frost Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning.

As October rolls in, a storm system will move into the central United States and may give us a chance of significant rain. There is some possibility the storm will stall to our southwest, leaving us dry, but hopefully it will stall close enough to give us a chance of rain. We could use it. We've been in a split flow pattern for the past month with the rainy weather staying to our south and the cold weather staying to our north-- the typical pattern for El Nino-- and it could be a prelude to the winter of 2009-2010. The depth and duration of snow cover may not be as good as it was last winter, but the temperature should be a bit warmer, making it easier to get outside.

Stagnant Pattern

I just had 0.19" on September 21, so I am at 0.23" for the month. We need another 0.31" to crawl out of last place for September. We may actually get close to that on Tuesday 9/22. The latest storm system is stalling out a little closer to us than earlier anticipated, so our chances of rain have improved!

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It looks like it could be a long time before we see any pattern change. Northern Minnesota has been underneath a very large upper level ridge of high pressure for the past three weeks. This high has been so strong, in fact, that any storm that tries to approach our area has stalled in the Dakotas, moved back westward, or dissipated completely. Consequently, we are on track to have our driest September on record. The present record stands at 0.54" in 1967, and so far (through September 19), we've only managed 0.04" according to my rain guage. With no rain in the foreseeable future (about 7-10 days), it looks like we will probably blow away the record.

The past month, we've seen only two thirds of an inch, which is near a record level for that time period. Our climate has definitely taken a shift toward more dryness.

The present pattern is one we usually get during moderate to strong El Ninos, so you should get used to this pattern.

Encore (Snowstorm Monday/Tuesday)

Tuesday noon update:

Not much change. Snow will end from south to north across the area this afternoon. Expect another inch or two in Grand Rapids, bringing the daily total to about 4" or so. Another 1-2" may fall tonight and Wednesday for a storm total of 4-6" in Grand Rapids. 6-11" in Bemidji and Brainerd. A foot or more will fall along the North Shore ridge if present trends continue.

Monday evening update:

Areas near Bismarck, ND have had 16-22" already and will probably get another 2-6" on top of that. This is much more of a Dakotas storm than a Minnesota storm. The models have been overforecasting snow amounts all season, and even when I compensate for that, the low end of my forecast amounts still seem to work best, so I have cut the totals back slightly. The way the dynamics of the system will play out, a moderately heavy snow makes the most sense. The storm will reach maximum intensity overnight and early Tuesday then slowly wind itself out over Minnesota late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Expect the heaviest snowfall rates to occur during the morning through early afternoon Tuesday while the storm is still at peak intensity. By late afternoon, snow will become more intermittent. Snow showers will continue Tuesday night and slowly end on Wednesday. Temperatures should remain in the upper 20s to mid 30s through Wednesday.

Storm total forecasts:
Fargo: 12-18"
Fergus Falls, Detroit Lakes: 11-16"
Bemidji, Grand Forks: 5-11"
Brainerd, Grand Rapids, Hibbing, Ely: 4-9"
Int'l Falls: 4-10"
North Shore ridge along Lake Superior: 6-11"


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Monday afternoon update: a narrow band of snow is trying to develop, roughly between Hinckley and Fergus Falls (it is already snowing near Fergus Falls). That band will persist throughout the afternoon and evening while slowly drifting northward. Any accumulations with this narrow, east-west band will probably occur west of Highway 169.

The main snowfall event may not get started until Tuesday morning in Grand Rapids, but in Fargo, it may be snowing all night. The snow will fall most heavily during the morning into early afternoon Tuesday. Scattered snow showers will persist into Wednesday morning.

Totals:

Fargo, Fergus Falls, Detroit Lakes: 12-16"
Brainerd: 8-12"
Bemidji: 7-12"
Grand Rapids, Hibbing, Ely, Int'l Falls: 4-10"
North Shore ridge along Lake Superior: 10-14"

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12:07 AM Monday: I updated the snow amounts in the Grand Rapids to reflect the greater likelihood of heavy snow. It is possible that the snowfall totals (measured in inches) could reach double digits by Wednesday morning.

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I'm not sure anyone's looking here any more, but I thought I'd comment on the next storm. This one will hit hardest exactly in the areas that don't want any precipitation... exactly in the Red River basin, upstream from Fargo. I don't know why the atmosphere has to keep repeating itself that way, but that's the way it is. The storm will develop over the central High Plains (Colorado/Nebraska) Sunday and intensify and move northeast into southern Minnesota Monday night. The storm will move very slowly northeast across Minnesota on Tuesday and continue to drop snow.

Because the system will be undergoing its intensification Sunday night through Monday night and will be slowly losing strength as it moves through Minnesota on Tuesday, the heaviest snows will fall to our west and southwest. With the track of the storm, the heaviest band of snow will fall along the North Dakota-South Dakota border to west-central Minnesota and northeastward up the Iron Range to Grand Portage. Amounts will decrease slightly from west to east across this path because the storm will start to lose its intensity along the way, but amounts will still generally be heavy. Expect 12-18" along the North Dakota-South Dakota border, about a foot from Fargo to Detroit Lakes, and 6-11" near Grand Rapids, and 4-10" in the northeastern corner of Minnesota.

As far as timing goes, the snow will start in the western Dakotas Sunday evening, reach the eastern part of the North Dakota-South Dakota border by Monday morning, Grand Rapids by the end of the day Monday. Snow will linger throughout Minnesota on Tuesday, and flurries will linger across northern Minnesota into Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will generally be in the 30s for highs and 20s for lows.

End of season

I was skiing yesterday (March 15) at Wabana, and there was still plenty of snow. The snowpack we have this March is probably the largest in terms of water content of any of past four years, but the weather pattern in place now will bring decidedly above average temperatures to northern Minnesota. This pattern will persist through the remainder of March, which means an accelerated melt will continue, likely until all the snow is gone. Anyone wishing to find snow in the woods will find it for a while, but the snowpack will be diminishing at a relatively rapid pace.

I would also guess (it's just a guess, but an educated one) that the ice will be off area lakes ahead of schedule despite the cold winter. There is no snow in the forecast, and the temperatures will mostly be above average. The ice-out date is quite sensitive to late season snow because the snow reflects sunlight very effectively.

It's been nice meeting everyone on the trails this season. Thanks again to the groomers for their hard work. Until next winter...

-Bob

Sugar Hills trail conditions

The grooming at Sugar Hills went well, the trail system is 100% groomed. It should be excellent skiing the next couple of days. If the temperatures rise into the forties the trails will suffer, especially the south facing hills. I would expect the skiing to be better earlier in the day, take care and have fun.

Get your skiing in now

(Please see also the grooming reports below)

After the coldest possible weather pattern now, one of our warmest patterns will arrive this week.

High temperature forecasts*:
Saturday 3/14: 47-51
Sunday 3/15: 49-54
Monday 3/16: 50-56
Tuesday 3/17: 40-50
Wednesday 3/18: 34-40
Thursday 3/19: 35-42

Low temperatures may stay above freezing Monday night and/or Tuesday night, but other nights, lows should be below freezing.

Many thanks to the groomers for getting out quickly in these final days of excellent snow.

Itasca County Ski Trails

Legion, Cowhorn, Golden Anniversary and Alder Pond were groomed today after the six inch snowfall yesterday. County plans to groom Wabana and Big Ridge on Thursday but will not get Suomi/Amen groomed this week.

Sugar Hills trail conditions

The forcast was right on, six inches of new snow at Sugar Hills. With the windy conditons there was a considerable amount of drifting especially on the Thunders. I packed the new snow and set a striding track today on most of the system. While the trail is skatable, the skate lane is marginal, the track however looked very good, with the possible exception of the areas where the drifting was the worst. The plan is to groom the skate lane before the weekend. Good Skiing.

Major Winter Storm Tuesday

Specific forecast amounts (these are Mon-Wed totals):
5" in Grand Rapids (John Latimer's forecast).
4-5" in Brainerd
8-9" Bemidji
3" Twin Cities
18" International Falls to extreme northern Itasca Co.
7" Duluth
10" in Virginia and Ely
12" over much of the northeastern corner of MN.

The heaviest band of snow this morning has set up exactly where it set up yesterday-- from between Fargo and Grand Forks to International Falls. In this line to maybe 30-40 miles southeast of this line, another 12"+ will fall today, particularly towards International Falls. That will bring totals to the 15" to 20" range in those locations. International Falls is definitely the bullseye for snowfall this winter. This storm will bring their season total to at least 110".

Another band of mixed precipitation is moving northward from southern Minnesota and will reach Brainerd and Grand Rapids this afternoon. The snow will become much heavier over Duluth and up the North Shore this evening as the main low becomes organized in Wisconsin. Grand Rapids and Brainerd will be between these two areas of heaviest snow, so total snowfall may amount to only 3-6", but most likely around 5".

Temperatures will be below zero all day in the northern Red River Valley but be in the 20s much of the day in Duluth. The farther west you go, the colder it will be. Subzero temperatures should be found over the entire area by Thursday morning.

Temperatures will likely be back in the 30s and 40s by this weekend.

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3-5" has already fallen from between Fargo and Grand Forks to International Falls. Expect some continued light snow and maybe some freezing drizzle tonight, mostly from Longville to Grand Rapids and points northward. We may get about a half inch in Grand Rapids and Bemidji and another 1-3" in far northern Itasca County and Koochiching County.

The main portion of the winter storm will move into northern Minnesota on Tuesday. The snow will be relatively light during the morning hours but will increase during the late morning between Fargo and International Falls. During the afternoon, an additional area of snow will move in from the southwest and spread over the rest of the KAXE listening area. The heaviest snowfall rates will occur during the late afternoon and early evening. There should be an additional 5-10" with this main portion of the storm. The snow will end from southwest to northeast late Tuesday night and be followed by windy and cold conditions as the temperatures drop to near zero. Blizzard conditions will likely occur in the Red River Valley. The coldest temperatures will be found Thursday morning (teens below zero) before milder weather returns by this weekend.

This storm will probably add a week to the ski season.

Ski For Peace and Season's End Ski Social Sat. March 7th, Bemidji

Ski For Peace, an informal ski tour promoting peace locally and globally will be held Saturday, March 7th on the Three Island County Park ski trails north of Bemidji. There will be a peace gathering at 2:00 p.m. at the dam / picnic area along the Turtle River. Participants are invited to share thoughts or poetry on peace or environmental concerns followed by ski touring on the scenic Three Island Park trails. The north parking lot provides the closest parking access to the dam / picnic area. Directions to the Three Island North Parking lot: Highway 71 north to Turtle River, left on to County #23- 2miles, left on to Three Island Park Road - one mile to parkinh lot.

The Bemidji Area Cross Country Ski Club is sponsoring the Season’s End Ski Social at the 71 Bar in Turtle River immediately following Ski For Peace from 3:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. Music will be provided by Aaron Tank and Drew Warne-Jacobsen as well as an appetizer bar. For more information call 586-2575.

Weather Big Picture for March 2-8

(Friday evening update):

Scattered light snow showers will be possible tonight. A significant snowstorm will likely move into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, followed by very cold temperatures. The forecast track of this storm will certainly change, so it's not certain if we'll actually get significant snow. However, all available numerical weather prediction models presently indicate significant snowfall over at least part of northern Minnesota from this storm, so the chances of significant snow are greater than we've seen over any time during the past two months.

Temperatures at this time of year are tough to predict. The numerical weather prediction models are incapable of accounting for the warming effects of sunlight over snow-covered ground in late winter and early spring, so high temperatures often climb far above their predicted values. We may have subfreezing high temperatures Saturday, but highs may reach above freezing Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be dropping well below freezing at night, allowing for nice spring conditions on trails that aren't too exposed to direct sunlight.

(Original post):

This week will bring mostly dry weather with warming temperatures. Highs will be in the low 20s Monday, near freezing Tuesday, near 40 Wednesday, mid 30s to 40 Thursday, and mid 30s Friday. Low temperatures might stay above freezing Wednesday night and Thursday night, which would enhance any melting this week, but clearing skies at night would allow the snow to refreeze and really keep the melting in check. By this coming weekend (March 7/8), we should have subfreezing high temperatures again.

Enjoy the upcoming spring conditions!

Sugar Hills trail conditions

Good Sunday Morning, the trail damage done by a "lost" snowmobiler has been smoothed out and where the Striding track wiped out it has been reset. The cold snow didn't give the best results, but at least the trail is smooth again.

Freshly Groomed Trails

Sugar Hills was groomed today, Cowhorn Lake (including the Boomer Blue) and River Road Trails were groomed yesterday. All in good to excellent condition so it should be a great weekend of skiing.

Saturday, March 7 is Springloppet at Sugar Hills, site of the popular now retired Vinterloppet race. Sponsored by Minnesota Biathlon, race coordinator is Vladimir Cervenka. There will be a Candy Cup race for kids, too!

legion trails

Legion was groomed today. The skate lane and track looked excellent from the groomer. Dress warm the next couple of days and enjoy the skiing.

Legion trails

Legion was groomed today. The skate lane was combed and a new track set. The trail is in great shape. The sun is becoming much stronger and any place the trail is exposed, especially south facing slopes, are softening during the day. As long as air temps stay fairly low the trail will hold up for a while. Grooming will continue as long as conditions allow.

Weather Big Picture for February 23-March 1

Thursday AM update:
Wow! The storm system snuck north a bit. Light snow will continue today and end by this evening. Accumulations will range from an inch in the far northern part of the area with several inches near Brainerd. Snows will be heavier in southern Minnesota with some local 8"+ likely in the Twin Cities. Temperatures will be below average late this week and into early next week.

Get your skiing in this week. At this time of year, melting conditions could arrive at just about any time. The numerical weather prediction models indicate a possibility of rain by March 4/5. Before then, conditions will be great for skiing.

(Original):

There will be no major weather pattern changes this week. The temperature will warm to near freezing on Tuesday and then cool off by the end of the week with highs in the teens and lows below zero. Occasional light snow will occur during the week as we will be in the "zone" where temperature contrast is largest (subzero weather just across the border in Canada, above freezing in southern Minnesota on Tuesday). However, there are no major storms looming. Overall, additional light snows on top of the refreshed snow pack we have in place now should make for some excellent skiing this week.

Sugar Hills trail conditions

All the major trails at Sugar Hills were groomed and new track set this afternoon(thursday the 19th). The inch plus of new snow helped cover up the ice that the warm weather had formed, the result is trail conditions in great shape. Sugar Hills Skiing should be excellent thru the weekend, for those of us who aren't heading for Hayward.

Coach's Corner by Mark Walters BHS Nordic Ski Coach

The Bemidji High School's Nordic ski team ended its 2008/2009 season with Zac Oelrich, earning all-state honors, and Matt Lee and Molly Manske, taking 93rd and 86th respectively in their first state appearance.
Bemidji's Zac Oelrich capped off his senior yr. with a stunning performance for the day, earning a spot in the top 25 overall in the state meet. Zac placed 24th after starting the afternoon's pursuit race in 16th place but met up with some unfortunate luck 2 KM into the event when he ran into two fallen skiers costing him a number of places in the event. As a true competitor, Zac commented "that's ski racing" and ended his High School career in style.
Matt Lee and Molly Manske came into the state meet for the first time as juniors and will be back next year as seniors to see just how much they can improve on this season's showing. Just getting to the state meet is a great accomplishment. Only 240 skiers, 120 boys and 120 girls, represent the state's best skiers. This year, 62 schools were represented at the state meet giving a well balance showing of our state's talent. Go to skinnyski.com and check out all of the state results.
The State meet, held at Giants Ridge Ski and Golf Resort, officially ends the 2008/2009 Minnesota Nordic skiing season. Many of our skiers will continue to race and participate in local and regional events.
Thanks for the great season,
Coach Walters

Weather Big Picture for February 16-22

Wednesday update: Colder than average temperatures will round out the week with highs in the single digits to teens and lows just below zero. We will have a chance of light snow or snow showers Friday with a dusting to half inch of accumulation. Next week will bring more chances of snow-- greatest along the Baudette to International Falls snowbelt that seems to be the epicenter for snowfall this season.

-----------------------------------

Slightly snowier... maybe.

First of all, many thanks to the groomers for getting to many of the trails after the rain last week. It's nice to have another couple weeks to ski.

An area of low pressure will be slowly organizing over the next couple days in the central United States. Also, an upper level weather disturbance will be moving across southern Canada. Eventually, these two systems will merge into one large storm system over Michigan. As this happens, scattered areas of light snow will be present over the area through Wednesday. The heaviest amounts will be along the international border, where 3" will likely fall on top of what has already fallen Monday morning. Another band of 3" or so will be found across northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. In the KAXE listening area, this week has a better chance than any of the last four weeks for a snowfall in the 1-2" range. Still, I'd rate that chance at only 30-40% in Grand Rapids and Bemidji with the most likely amount in the 0.2" to 0.5" range. The storm system will depart our area Wednesday night.

On Friday, a fairly intense but moisture-starved low pressure system will drop south out of Canada and bring more light snow to the area. Amounts will most likely be in the 0.1-0.5" range.

Temperatures will be mild Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 20s and lows generally no colder than about 20, but as the storm system departs, it will pull in colder air, and highs Thursday and Friday will be mostly in the low-mid teens with lows near zero. The weather for the Birkie on Saturday looks breezy (northwest winds) with highs in the mid teens.

We're entering what typically is our "second season" for snowfall. As I'm looking into the "dreamland" portion of the numerical model prognostications, I'm starting to see indications for a storm somewhere in the central U.S. in the February 23-26 time period. However, the pattern evolution leading up to next week does not remind me of anything that leads up to a significant snow event for us. In particular, I think the pattern may favor rain rather than snow, but it's pretty hard to tell so far in advance.

-Bob

Friday the 13th

Yup....just like they say in the old country, "what could go wrong did go wrong." Steve Fuller and I headed to Sugar Hills this morning to groom up those premium trails and a belt broke on the snowmobile I was using. Then a belt broke on Steve's snowmobile. Despite all the bad vibes the trails turned out fantastic. The skate lane is combed and a new track was set, so don't give up yet and get out there for great traditional skiing or skating with your sweetheart. Friday the 13th is almost over. Boomer The Groomer

Blueberry trails will be groomed tomorrow if conditions cooperate.

Trails Are Fragile - Please Stay Off

Due to the warm temperatures and rain please stay off all ski and snowmobile trails. They are extremely soft and fragile and damage can occur until freezing temperatures. Thanks, the groomers appreciate your cooperation! Boomer

Weather Big Picture for February 9-15

Update (Saturday):

It's been six weeks since the last >1" snowfall in Grand Rapids. We could use one now, but the pattern remains unfavorable for the next couple weeks at least. Along the Canadian border, it's been an entirely different story. International Falls has doubled our snowfall this season, and they've been routinely getting 2" snowfalls. Perhaps Bemidji and Grand Rapids could see another light dusting (~0.1") on Monday as yet another system moves along the Canadian border to the North Shore with 2-4". On the positive side, we've still got snow (there's no snow left in southern Minnesota), and Boomer is grooming the trails. Temperatures will be below average this weekend with highs in the low teens recovering to near average (highs in the 20s) during the week.

Original (Sunday evening):
We'll be getting some rain this week in addition to a 36-48 hour period of melting snow. The high temperatures in the 30s on Friday and Sunday did not do much damage to the ski trails because the clear skies, low humidity, and brief period of warmth kept prevented much melting. This time, however, the persistent, cloudy, drizzly/rainy weather we are about to experience will definitely diminish the snow pack. I'm not sure how the groomers deal with this type of situation, but my best estimate is the temperature will climb above freezing Monday morning and hover in the 34-38 degree range until Tuesday night when it drops back to around freezing, but it could be as long as Wednesday evening before the temperature drops enough to refreeze things. Total rainfall will probably be about 0.5" in Grand Rapids. My guess is the snow depth in the woods will diminish from about 15-18" now to about 9-14" by Tuesday night. I'm not great at predicting snow melt, but I think there may some opportunity to groom the trails after this system if one gets out shortly after freezup and before the slush gets too hard. (FYI, I skied Suomi this weekend, and Boomer and company did a fantastic job there on Friday).

Thereafter, the rest of the week should be dry. Temperatures will fall to slightly below average by this weekend with highs in the teens and lows near zero. Looking farther ahead, the large scale pattern looks unfavorable for new snow.

Do be careful driving over the next couple days. Even if the air temperature is warm, the roads are still cold after a lot of subzero weather this winter, so driving may be quite icy-- especially on side roads.

Trail Grooming Update

Cowhorn Lake groomed Thursday, February 5th and Suomi/Amen Trails groomed Friday, February 6th. Both trails are in good to very good condition.

Sugar Hills trail conditions

Wednesday, 4 Feb. I groomed at Sugar Hills today, the warm temperatures last weekend,followed by sub-zero temperatures made it tough to get a good surface. The Classic track is in good shape has a dusting of fresh snow, it should be good striding. I groomed the skate lane on the rest of the system and the skiing should be excellent the rest of the week. Tornado Bob is forecasting melting temperatures starting Friday or Saturday, maybe some rain!!! Since we have a decent base hopefully it will hold up and be groomable once it cools down again. Thanks to all the skiers that picked up all the sticks littering the trails, especially the tree on the Rajala Run.

Legion

Legion trails were groomed this afternoon.

Coach's Corner by Mark Walters BHS Nordic Ski Coach

The regular cross country ski season as come to an end for the 2008/2009 ski season. Most of section 8 attended the Buena Vista Pursuit race held just north of Bemidji, MN on Tuesday, January 27th.
Many of the coaches used the event to select their running order for the upcoming sectional meet on Wednesday, February 4th. Sections this year will be held on the Camp Ripley course with the girls classical event at 10 pm and the boys classical event at 11 pm. This timed start will set the stage for the afternoon's pursuit race. The girls go out at 1:30 pm and the boys at 2:30 pm. The pursuit format has the fastest classical skier going out first, followed by the next fastest skier back by their time difference and so on down the line. It' a very exciting type of race with lots of stategy and speed.
The section 8 outlook has the number 5 state ranked Grand Rapids boys looking pretty strong in the sectional meet with Bemidji close behind. The girls have two state ranked teams, Little Falls and Grand Rapids, with the 'edge' going to Little Falls.
One boys team and one girls team will go onto the state meet, along with the next eight fastest individual, boys and girls, to make up the skiers representing section 8. All in all that's 30 skiers from our area going to the state meet on February 13th at Giants Ridge.

Weather Big Picture for February 2-8 from Tornado Bob

Update (Feb 6 AM): hot on Friday, rain on Monday

The weather service says 36 for a high today, but I think it will be a lot warmer-- in the 40 to 50 degree range if we see any sun. Saturday will see a slight cooldown with a high in the mid 30s and a chance of flurries as a weak upper air disturbance passes through. Sunday will be a day between systems with highs near freezing.

Unfortunately, rain on Monday looks like a near certainty, and we'll be getting quite a bit. I hate to sound so pessimistic, but the large scale pattern screams "RAIN!!", and there's really nothing we can do about it. The low pressure center will track into northwestern Minnesota, and that will put the KAXE area on the warm side of the system. It would not surprise me to have thunderstorms as well in southern and central Minnesota. Believe it or not, I've seen more thunderstorms in Minnesota in February than snowstorms. February is just not typically a snowy month.

Once this upcoming rain passes, all indications are that we'll be in split flow, with the moisture staying well south of us and the cold air staying north. That would mean we'll have mild conditions and a slow, gradual melt throughout most of the rest of the month. Typical caveats to predicting weather beyond a week apply, but the upcoming pattern is usually a rather persistent one, so my bet is that February will end up warmer than average with below average snowfall.

Enjoy the spring conditions!

-Bob

Original (Feb 1):

My prediction for February 2 is that the ground hog will not see his shadow. It looks like spring might come early this year.

This week will be warmer than last week. We'll start out cold and windy, but temperatures really will only barely be below average. There will be a chance of snow showers very early in the week (early Monday), and the coldest temperatures in the subzero range (for lows) will occur Tuesday morning. Highs will be in the teens.

Another low pressure system will move to our north on Wednesday, bringing another shot of melting temperatures. Thereafter, it looks pretty uncertain what the temperature will do. Most indications are that we will have warm, cloudy, and drizzly weather, which can melt snow pretty quickly. There's a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts right now, so it's just about anybody's guess, but suffice it to say that the cold pattern we've been experiencing most of this winter is gone (at least for the next 10 days), and we'll probably end the week with a bit less snow than at the beginning. We'll have a chance of light rain late this week, and the warm and drizzly weather may continue into the following week, with occasional bouts of drizzle, rain, or wet snow interspersed with below freezing temperatures. To be honest, I'm really not sure what the long term will bring, but this is one of those patterns that can produce some very warm weather... or maybe not. The nonlinear behavior of the atmosphere (butterfly effect) will be on display over the next couple weeks.

The End Of January 2009

I'm a little delinquent in getting this information posted but I've been too busy skiing and enjoying the great trails.

The County groomed Wabana and Alder Pond on January 20th. They did Big Ridge and Stoney Ridge the 21st and Suomi/Amen Trails on Thursday January 29th, and I groomed Cowhorn Lake Trail the 29th too. Blueberry has been groomed this week and Sugar's skate lane was combed Friday and all trails are in good to very good condition. With the sun setting soooo late there is plenty of time to ski...we are heading to Suomi Hills right now.
Boomer The Groomer

Weather Big Picture for January 26 to February 2

Temperatures will become quite variable this week as areas of low pressure pass north of us during the middle and late portions of the week. These storms will have more effect on temperature than sensible weather, bringing only chances of light snow showers. Temperatures will begin this week in the Arctic range (highs single digits and lows approaching -20), and we will probably get one or more shots at highs in the 20s. There is a small chance we could see a brief period of above-freezing temperatures if one of these relatively dry low pressure areas brings enough warm air across us.

I think the most likely snow totals for this week will be less than about 0.1" water equivalent most places. If we get some really high snow to water ratios such as 30:1, there could be an inch or two of snow in some places, but amounts will certainly not be substantial. In fact, given our climatology, I would not expect any significant snowfall over the next month (although there sometimes are exceptions to that rule), so my updates to the blog will probably be less frequent in February.

Itasca County Grooming

Golden Anniversary River Road and Cowhorn Lake Trails were groomed on Thursday, January 22nd and are in great condition. Dogs who want to take their owners skiing are allowed on the Boomer-Blue Trail which is part of the Cowhorn Lake System south of Grand Rapids. It's a four mile round trip and snowshoers are also allowed on this trail. The Joyce Estate and Doan Lake Trails were groomed on Thursday too. Stay warm, Boomer The Groomer

Sugar Hills trail conditions

The skateing lane at Sugar Hills was groomed Friday the 23rd, The strideing track is in good shape, With the windy conditions expect some drifting in exposed spots. Dress warm and good skiing.

Bemidji Trails Report - 1/24 Weekend

Lake Bemidji State Park – Grooming planned for Thursday or before the weekend…trails in very good condition.
Hobson Forest Trail- Groomed on Thursday. Trails are in very good condition.
Montebello Trail - Montebello NiteSki on Friday night so will be groomed on Friday and regroomed on Saturday for Sunday Ski School. Well-used but good condition.
Three Island County Park - Groomed Thursday, excellent conditions.
Movil Maze Trail – Groomed on Monday, Jan. 19th. Very good to excellent skiing.
Buena Vista - Westside excellent condition, Eastside soft. Bemidji High School Pursuit Race rescheduled for Tues. 1/27.

Sugar Hills and Northern Lights Nordic Ski Club

The Sugar Hills trails were groomed today with a new track set for classic and the skate lane combed. The trail is in excellent condition with a number of ski club members skiing and enjoying the holiday today. Which reminds me....if you have not renewed your membership or would like to become a member of the Northern Lights Nordic Ski club send it in today!
Boomer The Groomer

NORTHERN LIGHTS NORDIC SKI CLUB
Name ________________________________________
Address______________________________________
Telephone____________________
EMail________________________

Membership fee enclosed: Benefactor $100.00___
Sustaining $50.00___Family $25.00 ___
Individual $15.00___ Student $5.00___

We need your membership to promote, maintain and improve Nordic skiing as a lifetime sport. Mail to: NLNSC • 33800 N. Shamrock Drive, Bovey, MN 55709

Fond Du Lac ski trail

The trail was groomed today, 1/19/2009, and a fresh track set. We have 14" of snow on the ground, with a 4-6" base. Looked like lots of folks took advantage of the nice weather this past weekend and got in some skiing. The trail is in excellent condition, enjoy the mild temps forecast for this week. Lonny Gervais

Weather Picture for January 19-25 from Tornado Bob

Friday update (Jan. 23):

The Arctic air is here once again, and highs will be in the single digits above and below zero for the next several days. By Tuesday, the temperature will moderate substantially, and I think we'll begin a period of below average snowfall and average to above average temperatures that will last perhaps a couple weeks or more (snowfall over the past two weeks has already been below average). The large scale weather pattern is becoming less favorable for snow, but that's normally the case at this time of year. The pattern will also feature a rather large and persistent area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska into the Canadian high plains. The counterclockwise circulation around this area of low pressure forces any Arctic air to either stay in Alaska or to move south over the Pacific, where it is quickly moderated due to the very large heat capacity of the ocean. This pattern is also a dry one for us because it does not allow large temperature contrasts (which is necessary to make snow) to develop over our area even though low pressure areas might move through.

(Monday's post)

A couple inches of light, dendritic snow along with warmer weather made for some excellent skiing this weekend. I skied the trails at Sugar Hills, and conditions were fabulous.

We will have continued warmer weather this week. There is some risk of melting temperatures, especially around midweek, but otherwise, the weather should be conducive to excellent skiing. We'll have a chance of light snow or flurries Monday then generally dry weather through midweek, although occasional clouds and maybe a little freezing drizzle may be found. The warmest day looks to be Wednesday with highs near freezing.

Another Arctic high pressure area will settle into the area by this weekend, and that will mean a return to colder temperatures, but the timing of this new Arctic intrusion is somewhat uncertain, as are the chances of snow late this week. Either way, it looks like we'll have bitter cold again this coming weekend, with highs near zero and lows around -20 F-- probably not a great temperature for the races at Mt. Itasca this weekend, but there should be a little fresh snow.

In the long range, we may be entering a somewhat snowier period again (maybe you didn't notice the decreased snowfall over the past two weeks) late this week and next week.

ICC/UofM North Central Exp Station 8 k Trail

1-13-09 a new track was set and the trail is in very good condition.

Sugar Hills trail conditions

1-12-2009
The Sugar Hills system was groomed Monday afternoon, All trails were groomed with the classic track reset. Skiing should be excellent, cold snow will slow things down some. Dress warm, and enjoy.

Weather Picture for January 12-18 from Tornado Bob

1/16 update: moderate temps and light snow/flurries this weekend, thaw looking less likely next week.

Well, there has been some pretty warm air building over the Prairie Provinces of Canada, the Yukon, and Alaska. Any change from our cold, northerly upper air flow to a more westerly or northwesterly upper air flow would bring this warm airmass over Minnesota, but it looks like the northerly flow will be quite stubborn through Monday. The window of opportunity for a thaw will probably close about midweek as another surge of Arctic air descends to our latitude, and given the stubbornness of the northerly flow, it is conceivable that we could escape without a thaw and preserve our good snow conditions. We will have a chance of light snow or flurries throughout much of the weekend.

Thus, my earlier (worst case) prediction for melting snow and temperatures in the 40s is looking somewhat silly right now! As a skier, I find that to be good news.

(Original post) Bitter cold this week followed by a thaw early next week, then back in the deep freeze.

The cold airmass that has been residing in Canada for most of the winter so far will be getting "booted" out, so to speak, and will come blasting through the central U.S. A large amplification of the upper air pattern is occurring this week and is responsible for driving the coldest air in Alaska and Yukon southward toward us and replacing it with anomalously warm air (for Alaska and the Yukon). As this process occurs, our upstream air source becomes much warmer, and there is no way to avoid a warm spell.

Thus, we will have a fairly "typical" Arctic blast this week with some high temperatures near zero or in the single digits below zero and lows reaching the -20s and -30s (the coldest spots like Embarrass will probably reach -40). By this weekend, the warmer temperatures will begin to move in, and by Monday, we'll probably high high temperatures above freezing. It's rare to have this sort of pattern evolution without seeing temperatures reach into the 40s, so expect some melting to occur early next week. The warm spell will probably not last very long, as the medium range models are generally indicating a rapid return back to a cold and dry weather pattern by midweek. Often, these transitions happen a little more slowly than expected, so what I describe above may be delayed by a day or two.

As far as snowfall is concerned, we may have some light amounts Tuesday night as the last in a series of Alberta Clipper systems moves through southwestern Minnesota, immediately ahead of the coldest air, but we are generally in a dry pattern, and no major snowfalls are on the horizon.

County/Federal Ski Trails

Here's the update, all trails are in good condition with the Joyce Estate being very good!

Groomed 1-5-09 Alder Pond
Groomed 1-6-09 Suomi/Amen and Joyce Estate
Groomed 1-7-09 Big Ridge
Groomed 1-8-09 Wabana
Groomed 1-9-09 Stoney Ridge

Bemidji Trails Update

The Bemidji area ski trails have all been groomed this week and are in very good to excellent condition. These trails include the lighted Montebello Trail, Lake Bemidji State Park, Movil Maze, Hobson Forest, Three Island County Park and Buena Vista. Additionally, Bemidji's newest trail system, Fern Lake, located south of Bemidji has now received enough snow to be groomed and is in decent shape. This new 5 km trail was dozed in at the end of November and has required additional snow to cover rough spots. To get directions to Fern Lake or any other Bemidji ski trail call the Home Place Bike and Ski Shop at (218) 751-3456. The Bemidji groomers will welcome a slow down in snowfall. It has been a challenge to keep up with the big dumps of snow over the Holidays. However, this is a good "problem" to have - much better to be challenged with lots of snow than to reckon with little or no snow as we had to do a few years back. We are on a roll now - two back to back "real" Minnesota winters in a row.

Bruce Slinkman

Cowhorn and River Road Trails

These trails were groomed today and are in terrific condition.

To check out other cross country ski trails in the area, click on the Trail Conditions icon on the KAXE main page and you will find all trails listed. Click on the the name of the trail and you'll see lots of information including location, map, length of trail and skill level. Lots of choices for all levels of skiers. See ya on the trail, Boomer The Groomer

Sugar Hills trail conditions

Grooming done Wednesday afternoon, the SNAG loop has been groomed and tracked, the rest of the system the skate lane was combed flat, the sub-zero lows should set the trails up nicely. Skiing should be excellent.

Coach's Corner by Mark Walters BHS Nordic Ski Coach

With the holidays behind us, the racing season is in full swing. Many section 8 teams did manage to compete over the holiday season. On December 30th most of us were at the Blueberry Hills Invite hosted by Deer River or at the Northland Arboretum in Brainerd on the 2nd of January.
The Blueberry Hills meet was a 5 KM skating event. The boys race was won by Bemidji's Zac Oelrich in a time of 15:33 and the girls event was won by Summer Ellefson in a time of 18:32. It was a cool day with new snow and freshly groomed conditions. This meant some hard glide wax to get any type of ski to move quickly. The Northland Arboretum meet was a 6 KM skating event. The boys race was won by Conrad Roberts (Battle Lake) in a time of 16:11 and the girls race was won by Little Falls Beth Hauer in a time of 19:27. Another very cool day with race time in the single digits.
These cold days with fresh snow are more conducive to northern Minnesota skiing. This requires the ski base to be prepped with a hard/cold wax to glide. The hard wax causes friction between the ski base and the sharp snow crystals thus giving a small amount of water to allow the ski to glide. Some of our favorite waxes for these conditions are; Start Green, Rex Green, Toko Blue, or Swix Green. The Start Green wax seems to be a real favorite of many skiers.
Start Green needs to be applied in multiple layers to get the best results. Each layer should be scraped cold and brushed out thoroughly to get the best results. A sharp scraper and multiple light passes with the scraper give the best/safest method of removing such a hard wax. It should shine up very black and glossy if the finish is good. Good luck and stay warm.
Coach W

Weather Picture for January 5-11 from Tornado Bob

(Thursday afternoon update):

The active, snowy weather pattern we've been in since December 5 is now drawing to a close. We will continue to have some rounds of light snow or flurries, but no significant snowfalls (1" or greater) are in sight. The Alberta Clipper storm track has shifted south of us and will be through western and southern Minnesota for the next few days before it disappears entirely as the upper level flow becomes more northerly and dry. Once the more northerly flow becomes established, it will drive some bitterly cold Arctic airmasses into the northern U.S. Right now, that transition looks to happen about Tuesday-Wednesday of early next week, but the timing of that transition seems to keep getting delayed, so there's some possibility it could happen later in the week, but I do think it will eventually happen. It will mean highs in the subzero (F) range for a few days and lows in the -20s or -30s (and -40 or so in the coldest spots).

The usual evolution after such a bitter Arctic outbreak is for the pattern to become much milder as the Arctic air source is exhausted, but that milder pattern may be a couple weeks away. In either case, the weather will probably be drier than average for the rest of January.

(Original):

I measured 5.2" new snow in Grand Rapids over the weekend. We certainly have enough snow now to keep the trails in pretty good shape for a while.

It will once again be a relatively cold week this week but no mega deep-freeze weather. We should have highs in the single digits and low teens and lows mostly below zero. It's still a good time to be applying that low temperature wax. There are some hints that a milder weather pattern may begin sometime around the January 15or so, but until then, expect below average temperatures.

Weather systems will affect us this week on Tuesday and Friday. On Tuesday, a trough of low pressure will move into Minnesota, but the system will be very moisture-starved, so I expect only a dusting of snow to fall. On Friday, a somewhat stronger system will be capable of producing a band of 2-6" snows, most likely just south of Brainerd, but there's definitely a chance Grand Rapids could see some modest accumulating snows as well.

Fond Du Lac Ski Trail

Trail is in very good condition, the front loops were widened and leveled with a new track set and the back loops had a new track set today, 01/04/2009. There is 14" of snow on the ground with a 5-8" base. With the cold temps today the track should set up well. Lonny Gervais

Sugar Hills trail conditions

The Sugar Hills trail system has been 90% groomed and tracked,only a last portion of The Thunders Trail beginning at the Rajala intersection and the SNAG Loop are not completed. With the expected sub-zero temperatures tonight the trail should firm up nicely.

Legion

Legion trails were packed, combed and tracked this morning. Dress warm and enjoy skiing.

Rick McDonald

Snowfall Forecast: Saturday January 3

The sustained heavy snowfall rates really have not materialized as I thought this afternoon, and the snow:liquid ratios have probably been a little closer to 10:1. Thus, I think the totals will be a little less than the 5-10" I earlier thought would fall. I think the totals will still reach the 4-6" range in the Grand Rapids area, perhaps up to 7" if we get a heavy burst of snow between now and 9PM, but probably no more than that. Some areas south of Grand Rapids might see only about 3". As of 4:25 PM, the heaviest snow should be over Grand Rapids, and the radar is indicating moderate snow, but only a few flakes are falling.

Temperatures should reach about 20 degrees F by late afternoon, drop into the teens tonight, then drop further to around zero by the end of the day Sunday. Sunday night the temperature may well drop to -20 or colder.

Enjoy the new snow!

Sugar Hills trail conditions

The entire trail system was groomed and tracked 1/2/09, during the day. There was some damage from snowmobiles on the East Loop, so it will still be a little rough in that area. Snowmobiles had also use a portion of the Swamp bypass, which was easier to repair. Take care and good skiing.