Temperatures will be up and down quite a bit this week, but gradually, we will be getting into a much colder pattern. Expect slightly below average temperatures by midweek then warmer temperatures again for a brief time this coming weekend (Dec. 5). Arctic air will pour into the region next week (Dec 6-10) with low temperatures in the subzero range and highs no warmer than the teens above zero. This will make for excellent snow-making conditions.
There is a chance of natural snowfall as well-- mostly north of Grand Rapids. A system will pass just north of Highway 2 on Tuesday with several inches of snow possible along the Canadian border. If the storm were to track a little farther south, accumulation would be possible along Highway 2 as well. Another system will pass through on Saturday (12/1 update: nevermind about Saturday-- looks dry now).
12/1 Snow Forecast Update: 6" in International Falls, 2-3" BigFork and Effie, 0.1-0.5" Grand Rapids and Bemidji, 0" in Brainerd. Other than light snow showers later in the week, this will probably be our only chance of significant snow for the next 7-10 days at least.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Monday, November 23, 2009
Weather for Thanksgiving Travel and Beyond
Significant snow is unlikely for the KAXE area for the next week, but if you travel to the east (Wisconsin or the far northeastern or southeastern corners of Minnesota), some accumulating snow may be possible Wednesday night. Temperatures will cool back to just above average for Thanksgiving, warm up again on Friday, then cool off again by the end of the weekend.
I expect snowfall to be minimal through December and encourage any ski areas with snow-making capability to take advantage of any temperatures below freezing.
I expect snowfall to be minimal through December and encourage any ski areas with snow-making capability to take advantage of any temperatures below freezing.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Historical Snow Depth Comparisons for Grand Rapids
The following image shows the comparison of average snow depth for Grand Rapids since 1980 for phases of ENSO: El Nino (warm), Neutral, and La Nina (cold). We are in an El Nino this season.
A better statistical comparison could be made by looking at more years. We have good data going back to 1950, but the winters 1950 through 1979 generally had deeper snow than those more recently. The following graph compares the 1950 through 1979 period with the most recent 30 winters.
The differences between the two sets of years are most likely due to a combination of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (a multi-decade climate cycle) and anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming.
A better statistical comparison could be made by looking at more years. We have good data going back to 1950, but the winters 1950 through 1979 generally had deeper snow than those more recently. The following graph compares the 1950 through 1979 period with the most recent 30 winters.
The differences between the two sets of years are most likely due to a combination of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (a multi-decade climate cycle) and anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming.
Weather Big Picture November 19-29: more of the same
Mild conditions will continue for the next 10 days. It looks like the probabilities of a really warm pattern will be decreasing, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will cool down. It just means that we're not as certain about a warm pattern for late next week as we were for this week. Either way, the chances for widespread, significant snow are very small over the next 10 days. That's good for Thanksgiving travel.
The other good news is that, although daytime highs will be above freezing, the nighttime temperatures will generally be favorable for snowmaking, so places such as Mt. Itasca that can make snow will generally be able to do so. There may be a period early Thanksgiving week that the nighttime temperatures could stay above freezing, but otherwise, the clear nights under high pressure are favorable for cold temperatures (good for snowmaking) and calm winds (good for making ice on lakes).
The other good news is that, although daytime highs will be above freezing, the nighttime temperatures will generally be favorable for snowmaking, so places such as Mt. Itasca that can make snow will generally be able to do so. There may be a period early Thanksgiving week that the nighttime temperatures could stay above freezing, but otherwise, the clear nights under high pressure are favorable for cold temperatures (good for snowmaking) and calm winds (good for making ice on lakes).
Friday, November 13, 2009
Snowmaking opportunities Nov. 15-18.
Conditions will become marginally favorable for nighttime snowmaking between Saturday night (Nov 14-15) and Wednesday night (Nov 18-19) with lows in the 20s to around 30. Keep those snow guns in low-lying areas to avoid above-freezing temperatures, and take steps to protect snow from melting during the day and later in the week. By the end of next week, round-the-clock above freezing temperatures will resume for at least a couple days. There's some hint of a change to a slightly colder pattern by Thanksgiving, but I don't trust that forecast yet.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Big Weather Picture: Nov. 11-17
Warmer than average temperatures will continue for the next week. Today (Nov. 11) and Thursday will have warm, cloudy, and windy weather with chances of rain, mostly in northwestern Minnesota on Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 40s to near 50 with lows near 40. Rain chances will continue Friday as a cold front enters the area and temperatures drop. We'll have slightly cooler weather this weekend and into next week with highs mostly in the 40s and lows dropping just below freezing.
This mild weather pattern is likely to persist most of the winter. I certainly hope I'm wrong! For the time being, the large scale pattern looks unfavorable for wintry conditions through November 24.
This mild weather pattern is likely to persist most of the winter. I certainly hope I'm wrong! For the time being, the large scale pattern looks unfavorable for wintry conditions through November 24.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Persistent mild weather as El Nino takes charge
The large scale pattern that is typically associated with El Nino has arrived. The cold patterns that have been dominating our weather over much of the past two years are gone and may not return for several months. El Nino refers to a large area of warmer than normal ocean temperatures along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. See the following link for more information:
http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/
The area of warmer than normal water is large enough that it affects the global atmospheric circulation. Thus, El Nino can have a strong impact on winter temperatures in Minnesota, more often making them significantly warmer than average.
Out of 18 El Nino winters since 1950, winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) temperatures in Grand Rapids have been above average 11 times and below average 7 times. The average Grand Rapids winter temperature for all years since 1950 is 11.2 degrees F. During El Nino events, the mean winter temperature has been 13.1 degrees F, nearly 2 degrees above average. The warmest of the El Nino events was in 1997-1998 when Grand Rapids winter temperature averaged over 22 degrees F, which is also Grand Rapids' warmest winter on record. This winter will see the strongest El Nino since the 1997-98 event. It is interesting to note that during the 1960s and 1970s, most El Nino winters were below average in temperature, so we're not guaranteed a warm winter, but since 1980, all of them have been warm, so my bet will be on warm temperatures (that's the global trend anyway).
As far as snow is concerned, snowfall tends to be below average: 47.9 inches during El Nino seasons versus 59.9 for all others (since 1950). 56.3" has been the average snowfall for all winters (including El Nino) since 1950. Out of 18 El Nino winters, 15 had less than this average. However, there have been exceptions. The winters of 1966, 1969, and 1970 all had over 70 inches of snow. The primary reason for reduced snowfall is the split flow in the jet stream, which keeps the cold air to the north of Minnesota and the storm track mostly to the south.
For the deer hunting rifle opener, we'll have mild weather with temperature in the 50s. If we get more sun than forecast, the airmass will be warm enough for temperatures in the 60s, but 50s looks more likely at this point. Sunday will see warm, sunnier weather with temperatures in the 50s. Thereafter, the weather should be mostly dry and mild through about November 15, and the mild pattern will likely persist through at least November 20 and perhaps the rest of the winter.
http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/
The area of warmer than normal water is large enough that it affects the global atmospheric circulation. Thus, El Nino can have a strong impact on winter temperatures in Minnesota, more often making them significantly warmer than average.
Out of 18 El Nino winters since 1950, winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) temperatures in Grand Rapids have been above average 11 times and below average 7 times. The average Grand Rapids winter temperature for all years since 1950 is 11.2 degrees F. During El Nino events, the mean winter temperature has been 13.1 degrees F, nearly 2 degrees above average. The warmest of the El Nino events was in 1997-1998 when Grand Rapids winter temperature averaged over 22 degrees F, which is also Grand Rapids' warmest winter on record. This winter will see the strongest El Nino since the 1997-98 event. It is interesting to note that during the 1960s and 1970s, most El Nino winters were below average in temperature, so we're not guaranteed a warm winter, but since 1980, all of them have been warm, so my bet will be on warm temperatures (that's the global trend anyway).
As far as snow is concerned, snowfall tends to be below average: 47.9 inches during El Nino seasons versus 59.9 for all others (since 1950). 56.3" has been the average snowfall for all winters (including El Nino) since 1950. Out of 18 El Nino winters, 15 had less than this average. However, there have been exceptions. The winters of 1966, 1969, and 1970 all had over 70 inches of snow. The primary reason for reduced snowfall is the split flow in the jet stream, which keeps the cold air to the north of Minnesota and the storm track mostly to the south.
For the deer hunting rifle opener, we'll have mild weather with temperature in the 50s. If we get more sun than forecast, the airmass will be warm enough for temperatures in the 60s, but 50s looks more likely at this point. Sunday will see warm, sunnier weather with temperatures in the 50s. Thereafter, the weather should be mostly dry and mild through about November 15, and the mild pattern will likely persist through at least November 20 and perhaps the rest of the winter.
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