Tuesday noon update:
Not much change. Snow will end from south to north across the area this afternoon. Expect another inch or two in Grand Rapids, bringing the daily total to about 4" or so. Another 1-2" may fall tonight and Wednesday for a storm total of 4-6" in Grand Rapids. 6-11" in Bemidji and Brainerd. A foot or more will fall along the North Shore ridge if present trends continue.
Monday evening update:
Areas near Bismarck, ND have had 16-22" already and will probably get another 2-6" on top of that. This is much more of a Dakotas storm than a Minnesota storm. The models have been overforecasting snow amounts all season, and even when I compensate for that, the low end of my forecast amounts still seem to work best, so I have cut the totals back slightly. The way the dynamics of the system will play out, a moderately heavy snow makes the most sense. The storm will reach maximum intensity overnight and early Tuesday then slowly wind itself out over Minnesota late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Expect the heaviest snowfall rates to occur during the morning through early afternoon Tuesday while the storm is still at peak intensity. By late afternoon, snow will become more intermittent. Snow showers will continue Tuesday night and slowly end on Wednesday. Temperatures should remain in the upper 20s to mid 30s through Wednesday.
Storm total forecasts:
Fargo: 12-18"
Fergus Falls, Detroit Lakes: 11-16"
Bemidji, Grand Forks: 5-11"
Brainerd, Grand Rapids, Hibbing, Ely: 4-9"
Int'l Falls: 4-10"
North Shore ridge along Lake Superior: 6-11"
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Monday afternoon update: a narrow band of snow is trying to develop, roughly between Hinckley and Fergus Falls (it is already snowing near Fergus Falls). That band will persist throughout the afternoon and evening while slowly drifting northward. Any accumulations with this narrow, east-west band will probably occur west of Highway 169.
The main snowfall event may not get started until Tuesday morning in Grand Rapids, but in Fargo, it may be snowing all night. The snow will fall most heavily during the morning into early afternoon Tuesday. Scattered snow showers will persist into Wednesday morning.
Totals:
Fargo, Fergus Falls, Detroit Lakes: 12-16"
Brainerd: 8-12"
Bemidji: 7-12"
Grand Rapids, Hibbing, Ely, Int'l Falls: 4-10"
North Shore ridge along Lake Superior: 10-14"
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12:07 AM Monday: I updated the snow amounts in the Grand Rapids to reflect the greater likelihood of heavy snow. It is possible that the snowfall totals (measured in inches) could reach double digits by Wednesday morning.
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I'm not sure anyone's looking here any more, but I thought I'd comment on the next storm. This one will hit hardest exactly in the areas that don't want any precipitation... exactly in the Red River basin, upstream from Fargo. I don't know why the atmosphere has to keep repeating itself that way, but that's the way it is. The storm will develop over the central High Plains (Colorado/Nebraska) Sunday and intensify and move northeast into southern Minnesota Monday night. The storm will move very slowly northeast across Minnesota on Tuesday and continue to drop snow.
Because the system will be undergoing its intensification Sunday night through Monday night and will be slowly losing strength as it moves through Minnesota on Tuesday, the heaviest snows will fall to our west and southwest. With the track of the storm, the heaviest band of snow will fall along the North Dakota-South Dakota border to west-central Minnesota and northeastward up the Iron Range to Grand Portage. Amounts will decrease slightly from west to east across this path because the storm will start to lose its intensity along the way, but amounts will still generally be heavy. Expect 12-18" along the North Dakota-South Dakota border, about a foot from Fargo to Detroit Lakes, and 6-11" near Grand Rapids, and 4-10" in the northeastern corner of Minnesota.
As far as timing goes, the snow will start in the western Dakotas Sunday evening, reach the eastern part of the North Dakota-South Dakota border by Monday morning, Grand Rapids by the end of the day Monday. Snow will linger throughout Minnesota on Tuesday, and flurries will linger across northern Minnesota into Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will generally be in the 30s for highs and 20s for lows.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Monday, March 16, 2009
End of season
I was skiing yesterday (March 15) at Wabana, and there was still plenty of snow. The snowpack we have this March is probably the largest in terms of water content of any of past four years, but the weather pattern in place now will bring decidedly above average temperatures to northern Minnesota. This pattern will persist through the remainder of March, which means an accelerated melt will continue, likely until all the snow is gone. Anyone wishing to find snow in the woods will find it for a while, but the snowpack will be diminishing at a relatively rapid pace.
I would also guess (it's just a guess, but an educated one) that the ice will be off area lakes ahead of schedule despite the cold winter. There is no snow in the forecast, and the temperatures will mostly be above average. The ice-out date is quite sensitive to late season snow because the snow reflects sunlight very effectively.
It's been nice meeting everyone on the trails this season. Thanks again to the groomers for their hard work. Until next winter...
-Bob
I would also guess (it's just a guess, but an educated one) that the ice will be off area lakes ahead of schedule despite the cold winter. There is no snow in the forecast, and the temperatures will mostly be above average. The ice-out date is quite sensitive to late season snow because the snow reflects sunlight very effectively.
It's been nice meeting everyone on the trails this season. Thanks again to the groomers for their hard work. Until next winter...
-Bob
Friday, March 13, 2009
Sugar Hills trail conditions
The grooming at Sugar Hills went well, the trail system is 100% groomed. It should be excellent skiing the next couple of days. If the temperatures rise into the forties the trails will suffer, especially the south facing hills. I would expect the skiing to be better earlier in the day, take care and have fun.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Get your skiing in now
(Please see also the grooming reports below)
After the coldest possible weather pattern now, one of our warmest patterns will arrive this week.
High temperature forecasts*:
Saturday 3/14: 47-51
Sunday 3/15: 49-54
Monday 3/16: 50-56
Tuesday 3/17: 40-50
Wednesday 3/18: 34-40
Thursday 3/19: 35-42
Low temperatures may stay above freezing Monday night and/or Tuesday night, but other nights, lows should be below freezing.
Many thanks to the groomers for getting out quickly in these final days of excellent snow.
After the coldest possible weather pattern now, one of our warmest patterns will arrive this week.
High temperature forecasts*:
Saturday 3/14: 47-51
Sunday 3/15: 49-54
Monday 3/16: 50-56
Tuesday 3/17: 40-50
Wednesday 3/18: 34-40
Thursday 3/19: 35-42
Low temperatures may stay above freezing Monday night and/or Tuesday night, but other nights, lows should be below freezing.
Many thanks to the groomers for getting out quickly in these final days of excellent snow.
Itasca County Ski Trails
Legion, Cowhorn, Golden Anniversary and Alder Pond were groomed today after the six inch snowfall yesterday. County plans to groom Wabana and Big Ridge on Thursday but will not get Suomi/Amen groomed this week.
Sugar Hills trail conditions
The forcast was right on, six inches of new snow at Sugar Hills. With the windy conditons there was a considerable amount of drifting especially on the Thunders. I packed the new snow and set a striding track today on most of the system. While the trail is skatable, the skate lane is marginal, the track however looked very good, with the possible exception of the areas where the drifting was the worst. The plan is to groom the skate lane before the weekend. Good Skiing.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Major Winter Storm Tuesday
Specific forecast amounts (these are Mon-Wed totals):
5" in Grand Rapids (John Latimer's forecast).
4-5" in Brainerd
8-9" Bemidji
3" Twin Cities
18" International Falls to extreme northern Itasca Co.
7" Duluth
10" in Virginia and Ely
12" over much of the northeastern corner of MN.
The heaviest band of snow this morning has set up exactly where it set up yesterday-- from between Fargo and Grand Forks to International Falls. In this line to maybe 30-40 miles southeast of this line, another 12"+ will fall today, particularly towards International Falls. That will bring totals to the 15" to 20" range in those locations. International Falls is definitely the bullseye for snowfall this winter. This storm will bring their season total to at least 110".
Another band of mixed precipitation is moving northward from southern Minnesota and will reach Brainerd and Grand Rapids this afternoon. The snow will become much heavier over Duluth and up the North Shore this evening as the main low becomes organized in Wisconsin. Grand Rapids and Brainerd will be between these two areas of heaviest snow, so total snowfall may amount to only 3-6", but most likely around 5".
Temperatures will be below zero all day in the northern Red River Valley but be in the 20s much of the day in Duluth. The farther west you go, the colder it will be. Subzero temperatures should be found over the entire area by Thursday morning.
Temperatures will likely be back in the 30s and 40s by this weekend.
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3-5" has already fallen from between Fargo and Grand Forks to International Falls. Expect some continued light snow and maybe some freezing drizzle tonight, mostly from Longville to Grand Rapids and points northward. We may get about a half inch in Grand Rapids and Bemidji and another 1-3" in far northern Itasca County and Koochiching County.
The main portion of the winter storm will move into northern Minnesota on Tuesday. The snow will be relatively light during the morning hours but will increase during the late morning between Fargo and International Falls. During the afternoon, an additional area of snow will move in from the southwest and spread over the rest of the KAXE listening area. The heaviest snowfall rates will occur during the late afternoon and early evening. There should be an additional 5-10" with this main portion of the storm. The snow will end from southwest to northeast late Tuesday night and be followed by windy and cold conditions as the temperatures drop to near zero. Blizzard conditions will likely occur in the Red River Valley. The coldest temperatures will be found Thursday morning (teens below zero) before milder weather returns by this weekend.
This storm will probably add a week to the ski season.
5" in Grand Rapids (John Latimer's forecast).
4-5" in Brainerd
8-9" Bemidji
3" Twin Cities
18" International Falls to extreme northern Itasca Co.
7" Duluth
10" in Virginia and Ely
12" over much of the northeastern corner of MN.
The heaviest band of snow this morning has set up exactly where it set up yesterday-- from between Fargo and Grand Forks to International Falls. In this line to maybe 30-40 miles southeast of this line, another 12"+ will fall today, particularly towards International Falls. That will bring totals to the 15" to 20" range in those locations. International Falls is definitely the bullseye for snowfall this winter. This storm will bring their season total to at least 110".
Another band of mixed precipitation is moving northward from southern Minnesota and will reach Brainerd and Grand Rapids this afternoon. The snow will become much heavier over Duluth and up the North Shore this evening as the main low becomes organized in Wisconsin. Grand Rapids and Brainerd will be between these two areas of heaviest snow, so total snowfall may amount to only 3-6", but most likely around 5".
Temperatures will be below zero all day in the northern Red River Valley but be in the 20s much of the day in Duluth. The farther west you go, the colder it will be. Subzero temperatures should be found over the entire area by Thursday morning.
Temperatures will likely be back in the 30s and 40s by this weekend.
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3-5" has already fallen from between Fargo and Grand Forks to International Falls. Expect some continued light snow and maybe some freezing drizzle tonight, mostly from Longville to Grand Rapids and points northward. We may get about a half inch in Grand Rapids and Bemidji and another 1-3" in far northern Itasca County and Koochiching County.
The main portion of the winter storm will move into northern Minnesota on Tuesday. The snow will be relatively light during the morning hours but will increase during the late morning between Fargo and International Falls. During the afternoon, an additional area of snow will move in from the southwest and spread over the rest of the KAXE listening area. The heaviest snowfall rates will occur during the late afternoon and early evening. There should be an additional 5-10" with this main portion of the storm. The snow will end from southwest to northeast late Tuesday night and be followed by windy and cold conditions as the temperatures drop to near zero. Blizzard conditions will likely occur in the Red River Valley. The coldest temperatures will be found Thursday morning (teens below zero) before milder weather returns by this weekend.
This storm will probably add a week to the ski season.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Ski For Peace and Season's End Ski Social Sat. March 7th, Bemidji
Ski For Peace, an informal ski tour promoting peace locally and globally will be held Saturday, March 7th on the Three Island County Park ski trails north of Bemidji. There will be a peace gathering at 2:00 p.m. at the dam / picnic area along the Turtle River. Participants are invited to share thoughts or poetry on peace or environmental concerns followed by ski touring on the scenic Three Island Park trails. The north parking lot provides the closest parking access to the dam / picnic area. Directions to the Three Island North Parking lot: Highway 71 north to Turtle River, left on to County #23- 2miles, left on to Three Island Park Road - one mile to parkinh lot.
The Bemidji Area Cross Country Ski Club is sponsoring the Season’s End Ski Social at the 71 Bar in Turtle River immediately following Ski For Peace from 3:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. Music will be provided by Aaron Tank and Drew Warne-Jacobsen as well as an appetizer bar. For more information call 586-2575.
The Bemidji Area Cross Country Ski Club is sponsoring the Season’s End Ski Social at the 71 Bar in Turtle River immediately following Ski For Peace from 3:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. Music will be provided by Aaron Tank and Drew Warne-Jacobsen as well as an appetizer bar. For more information call 586-2575.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Weather Big Picture for March 2-8
(Friday evening update):
Scattered light snow showers will be possible tonight. A significant snowstorm will likely move into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, followed by very cold temperatures. The forecast track of this storm will certainly change, so it's not certain if we'll actually get significant snow. However, all available numerical weather prediction models presently indicate significant snowfall over at least part of northern Minnesota from this storm, so the chances of significant snow are greater than we've seen over any time during the past two months.
Temperatures at this time of year are tough to predict. The numerical weather prediction models are incapable of accounting for the warming effects of sunlight over snow-covered ground in late winter and early spring, so high temperatures often climb far above their predicted values. We may have subfreezing high temperatures Saturday, but highs may reach above freezing Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be dropping well below freezing at night, allowing for nice spring conditions on trails that aren't too exposed to direct sunlight.
(Original post):
This week will bring mostly dry weather with warming temperatures. Highs will be in the low 20s Monday, near freezing Tuesday, near 40 Wednesday, mid 30s to 40 Thursday, and mid 30s Friday. Low temperatures might stay above freezing Wednesday night and Thursday night, which would enhance any melting this week, but clearing skies at night would allow the snow to refreeze and really keep the melting in check. By this coming weekend (March 7/8), we should have subfreezing high temperatures again.
Enjoy the upcoming spring conditions!
Scattered light snow showers will be possible tonight. A significant snowstorm will likely move into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, followed by very cold temperatures. The forecast track of this storm will certainly change, so it's not certain if we'll actually get significant snow. However, all available numerical weather prediction models presently indicate significant snowfall over at least part of northern Minnesota from this storm, so the chances of significant snow are greater than we've seen over any time during the past two months.
Temperatures at this time of year are tough to predict. The numerical weather prediction models are incapable of accounting for the warming effects of sunlight over snow-covered ground in late winter and early spring, so high temperatures often climb far above their predicted values. We may have subfreezing high temperatures Saturday, but highs may reach above freezing Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be dropping well below freezing at night, allowing for nice spring conditions on trails that aren't too exposed to direct sunlight.
(Original post):
This week will bring mostly dry weather with warming temperatures. Highs will be in the low 20s Monday, near freezing Tuesday, near 40 Wednesday, mid 30s to 40 Thursday, and mid 30s Friday. Low temperatures might stay above freezing Wednesday night and Thursday night, which would enhance any melting this week, but clearing skies at night would allow the snow to refreeze and really keep the melting in check. By this coming weekend (March 7/8), we should have subfreezing high temperatures again.
Enjoy the upcoming spring conditions!
Sugar Hills trail conditions
Good Sunday Morning, the trail damage done by a "lost" snowmobiler has been smoothed out and where the Striding track wiped out it has been reset. The cold snow didn't give the best results, but at least the trail is smooth again.
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