Active Weather (and Finally, a Chance of Snow)

Okay, I guess I got your attention with that title. The weather will be a bit more active in the next few days (through about the middle of next week, or about April 7 or 8). One system will be bringing mostly rain to eastern North Dakota and the far northwestern corner of Minnesota today and Friday. Parts of north-central Minnesota (including Grand Rapids) may see a few showers from this system as well. The system may draw enough cold air into it that there will be a chance of mixed precipitation as the system exits late Friday and early Saturday. Temperatures will slowly return to levels closer to average for this time of year.

There will be a couple days break with Easter Sunday and Monday bringing relatively nice weather, although there may still be chances of some scattered rain.

A second storm system will enter the central U.S. late Tuesday and move east and northeast to the western Great Lakes by Thursday. This system has a better chance of bringing significant precipitation to northern Minnesota because it will have better access to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Just who sees the heaviest precipitation remains to be seen, however, as it's still too far ahead to forecast the exact track of the storm. This storm could also bring a risk of accumulating snow in some places, although hopefully not too much.

Where Was Our "Snowiest Month"?

The KAXE area will have a chance of rain on Saturday (March 27) and somewhat seasonal temperatures this weekend. The last few days of March will become quite warm, and we will be able to say that March came in like a lamb and also went out like a lamb! It's been close to our warmest on record and will certainly finish somewhere in the top five or ten. Consistent with the warm temperatures has been a total absence of measurable snowfall across all of Minnesota except for 0.2" at International Falls. The combination of near-record warmth and no snow may bring record-early ice-out to northern Minnesota lakes. The early ice-out records in north-central Minnesota are generally about a week into April. In particular, it is April 6 for Pokegama Lake in Grand Rapids-- set in the year 2000.

After seasonal temperatures Saturday and Sunday along with a chance of scattered areas of rain on Saturday, the weather will get warmer during this upcoming week. Highs should get at least into the 60s. Chances of rain and maybe a thunderstorm or two may return at the end of the week or around Easter Sunday. Round-the-clock above freezing temperatures and humidity will be favorable for rapid ice melt.

Colder

A cold airmass has moved in. Temperatures will actually be below average (for highs) for a couple days. No significant precipitation is in the forecast, but we are getting our first flakes in about a month (so much for the perfectly snow-free March). The storm track will remain along the Canadian border (north of the KAXE area) for the next week.

An interesting note: Oklahoma City has a chance to surpass our seasonal snowfall total with a storm they will be getting this weekend.

Another Warm Week, Storm Ahead?

A full week of temperatures above freezing, both day and night, has ended winter sports, at least until calendar spring, and made people think more about gardening and boating. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the 19th, and this would conceivably put us in the running for the warmest March on record-- due more to the persistence of the warmth-- we have not broken any record highs. Highs this coming week will be mostly in the 50s with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Right now, I'm doubtful we'll set a new warm March record because the weather pattern will change by the 19th as a storm system noves in from the southwest. Initially, this storm (if it reaches us) will bring rain, but it may end as snow.

It's uncertain how cold it might become after the next weekend (20-21), but it looks like our El Nino pattern will go away for a little while.

A Rainy Week Ahead, Winter Retrospective

I guess I should know better than to discount chances of precipitation. The storm system that looked to hit mostly the Dakotas this week will be close enough to provide rain for us, too, between Monday evening and Wednesday. Due to the very slow upper winds in the northern U.S. (a pretty typical El Nino pattern), the system will be moving slowly and will hang around for a while. The combination of warm temperatures (reaching near 50 during the day, probably not dropping below freezing at night) and rain will melt a majority of our snow this week.

The graph above shows that, on average, since 1980, snow during El Nino winters melts about two weeks early, and this year looks to be no exception-- it should follow the red line in the graph pretty closely. Considering that we've had a relatively strong El Nino, our snow depth and temperature have been really good this season. The average would be 10 inches, but we've had about 14 inches on the ground during a good part of the winter, and much of the rest of the state, particularly the North Shore highlands, and southern and western Minnesota, have had even more. I've recorded 28.2 inches snow this season, which is well below average, but the water content of the snow was relatively high, so in terms of frozen water equivalent on the ground, this winter is not far from average. That, and the absence of any major mid-winter thaws made this winter feel pretty much like an average one for this area. Our average winter temperature (Dec-Jan-Feb) was 12.2 degrees F, which is only slightly above average and a couple degrees below the expected value for an El Nino winter.

More Mild Weather

Temperatures will remain mild and the weather mostly dry for the next couple weeks. The basic pattern has not changed in a month. A split in the upper air flow over North America will keep storms away from north central and northeast Minnesota. There's a small chance one of the storms will move close enough to give us light rain about Wednesday, but for the most part, precipitation will be limited to those parts of the Upper Midwest that have the greatest risk of flooding-- the Red River Valley into southwestern and southern Minnesota.

Sometimes the best forecast is a hindcast.

-Bob

Still Quiet on the Weather Front

I can't say it's perfectly quiet. We did have 0.8" or 0.9" snow this week. However, there are no major storms in the Upper Midwest, and it will stay that way for at least the next week. Highs will be in the 30s and lows in the single digits above and below zero.

More dry weather

Our driest month of the year will go down as even drier than average. We are the center of a massive, continental-scale high pressure system that will be very effective at keeping all storms (aside from maybe a light dusting of snow on Tuesday) away from northern Minnesota for the foreseeable future. In weather forecasting, the definition of foreseeable future is never beyond a couple weeks, but the pattern is so well-established and stable, I would not be surprised to see this last through March or maybe into April.

With high pressure in control and strengthening late February sunshine, we will have a large daily range of temperature, featuring comfortable highs around freezing and lows dropping into the single digits above and below zero.

Quiet Weather

Aside from an occasional disturbance passing to our southwest along this year's dominant storm track from the eastern Dakotas through southwestern Minnesota, the weather will be mostly quiet over the next couple weeks. Temperatures will generally fluctuate around or slightly below seasonal averages for this time of year with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits above and below zero.

Snow depths this year have benefited greatly from the lack of major warm spells and the high moisture content of the snow that has fallen (which results in less settling of the snow). Snowfall has been below average from Grand Rapids through Virginia and Ely, near average in International Falls and Duluth, and much above average over western and southern Minnesota. Despite below average snowfall in much of the KAXE area, snow depths are pretty close to average.

Chance of Accumulating Snow Sun-Tue (Feb. 7-9)

Much of the snowfall so far this winter has been far to our south and west. In fact, since Dec. 1 some towns in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles have had about the same amount of snow (20-21 inches) as Grand Rapids. Sioux City, Iowa has had twice as much as we've had this season, and by Sunday, the Baltimore, Maryland and Washington D.C. areas will have doubled our season total snowfall. In all those areas, the snow melts a lot more than it does here, so they don't have nearly as much on the ground-- unless they're at the tail end of a snowstorm.

The most recent snow depth map tells the story of this winter:
http://climate.umn.edu/doc/snowmap/snowmap_100204.htm

Snow depth is above average in southern and far western Minnesota but below average in Itasca County (although not by a whole lot-- we've had far worse). Likewise this week, several waves of snow have been missing us just to the southwest... from Fargo to the Twin Cities. The same trend will continue into the early part of the weekend.

By Sunday, a more vigorous upper level disturbance will drop south from Canada, and it could spread snow into northcentral and northeastern Minnesota. That is, if it, too, doesn't miss us to the southwest. Certainly, the snow will be heavier in that direction, with an additional 6-12" falling in the same areas that have received much of the snow earlier this week. If we're lucky, Grand Rapids may see several inches of snow, but I think it's more likely we'll see 1-2". Bemidji and Brainerd have a better chance of seeing heavier amounts. The disturbance will move away on Tuesday, and colder air will move back in.

Trail Conditions

Hello All! Alder Pond, Stoney Ridge, Blueberry, Boomer-Blue, Cowhorn, Forest History Center, River Road, Legion, MN Power and Portage Park in Cohasset, Mount Itasca, South Suomi,(but not North Suomi) Amen Lake and Joyce Estate all were groomed this week.

This morning a track was set at Sugar Hills on 90% of the trails. There are a number of tree branches hanging over the trail so we encourage all skiers to nip a few as you go through the woods.

The first annual fun ski at Sugar Hills will take place tomorrow, Saturday the 30th around 10:30ish. Skiers of all ages and abilities will be skiing and socializing throughout the morning and afternoon. Bring your good skis (and a nipper?) plus a lunch/beverage to refuel before going out to ski again. We're working on having a fire so there may be a place to warm up! Cheers!

Quiet Weather, Groomed Trails

Quiet weather until further notice (late Feb or March?). The groomers have done a great job on the trails. See their report below.

Grooming Update

On Monday, January 25th River Road, Cow Horn and the Boomer-Blue Trails in Grand Rapids were groomed and tracks set. The skiing should be great.

Update on Jan 23-25 storm

6:30 PM Jan 23rd

The first round of snow has mostly passed, and the temperature should stay steady in the mid 30s overnight through midday Sunday. Some occasional light snow will be possible, too, but I don't expect more than a quarter inch accumulation. About an inch of snow fell on top of the ice. Approximately 3 to 5 inches fell along the North Dakota border in the Red River Valley.

The second round will come sometime Sunday afternoon as a stronger low pressure area develops in Illinois and moves northward to Lake Superior. Snow will spread from Wisconsin northwestward into much of northern Minnesota. The heaviest will be in the Arrowhead east of Highway 53 and northwestern Wisconsin closer to the low, where amounts of six inches or more will be possible. Farther west snow amounts will be quite a bit less. This snow will gradually diminish to just flurries by Monday afternoon. Expect 1 to 3 inches in Grand Rapids from this second round, bringing our total to 2 to 4 inches (including the inch that we already got today).

On Sunday evening, winds will become stronger and northerly, and arctic air will again enter the area, dropping the temperatures to values closer to normal for this time of year.

Updated forecast snow amounts (totals from Friday evening through Monday):
Grand Rapids 2-4"
Grand Forks, ND 5-8"
Twin Cities 0.5-2"
Duluth, North Shore of Lake Superior 5-10"
International Falls 4-6"
Brainerd 2-3"
Bemidji 2-4"
Ely 4-8"

Forecast Snow Amounts Jan 23-25

Grand Rapids 1-4"
Grand Forks, ND 12-15"
Twin Cities 1-4"
Duluth, North Shore of Lake Superior 5-10"
International Falls 4-6"
Brainerd 2-5"
Bemidji 3-7"
Ely 1-3"

Update on Weekend Precipitation (Jan 23-24)

The bulk of the weekend storm will be focused on the eastern Dakotas where a foot or more of snow will be possible. In northern Minnesota, my best guess right now would be that we'll get a mixture of light rain and snow that will start Saturday afternoon and continue on and off through late Sunday. By Sunday evening, more cold air will work into the system, changing all the rain to steady light snow. Expect 1-4" accumulation Sunday evening through Monday in Grand Rapids. Temperatures will likely hover in the 30-36 degree range most of the weekend.

After the system passes, I would expect another three or four weeks of dry weather based mostly the fact that late January through mid February is climatologically the driest part of the year (although there are always exceptions).

Warm Weather Continues, Rain/Snow Storm this Weekend

The weather pattern this past week has looked like a rather typical for a winter with El Nino. Arctic Air is locked away in far northern Canada and Alaska, and the storm track is across the southern U.S. The forecasts for this coming week do not look quite as warm as they had looked earlier, but we will still have above-average temperatures in the 20s and 30s.



By this weekend, a storm system will be moving into the central U.S. Initially, with a lack of cold air, this system may produce a mixture of snow, rain/drizzle or freezing rain/drizzle in Minnesota. The combination of mixed precipitation would change to snow as colder air works into the system. This system had earlier looked like a big rainmaker as far north as southern Manitoba, but now it looks to be more snow than rain. Wherever this storm hits hardest, snow amounts would exceed a foot. There's still some chance the storm could stay south of our area, but we'll most likely get our first accumulating snow of 2010.

After next weekend (Jan 23-24), temperatures will return to near normal.

Grooming Update

Amen Trail groomed January 6th; Sugar Hills January 10th; Alder Pond January 12th; Cowhorn and River Road the 14th. The lights are not working at MPL trail. The snow conditions have been good for skiing, enjoy!

Warmer weather (thaws) this week, RAIN next week

Daytime temperatures will start to climb above freezing this week, particularly on Wednesday (13th) and perhaps again this weekend (Jan. 16-17).

Next week will likely be even warmer with both daytime highs and nighttime lows above freezing before the end of next week. We will also have a good chance of rain or drizzle during this time. Weather is usually pretty tough to predict that far ahead, but the signals are very strong this time. If the weather turns out as predicted, we will probably lose most of our snowcover, which means any outdoor recreation based on natural snow will come to an end. Therefore, it would be a good idea to try to do those things (skiing, snowmobiling, etc.) this week.

January Thaw Next Week

The Arctic weather we've been having will depart the area this weekend (Jan 9-10). We should be seeing an extended period (at least a week) of mild weather with high temperatures occasionally reaching above freezing. No significant snow is in the forecast for the foreseeable future.

Ski Conditions - New Year's Day 2010

Most trails in Itasca County have been groomed this week, except Thistledew. Scenic State Park and McCarthy Beach State Park trails were groomed and ICC trails were packed.