Big Weather Picture Oct. 30-Nov 7

Wet Pattern on the Way Out

The large storm system will be leaving our area today (Friday Oct 30), and seasonably cool air will fill in behind it. We'll have some wind Friday and Saturday, but things will calm down after that.

For most of the Nov 1-5 period, the weather looks a bit drier-- only light precipitation is expected. Temperatures will be near average to slightly below average with highs in the upper 30's to low 40's and lows mostly in the 20's.

By the deer rifle opening weekend, an El Nino-induced mild weather pattern will begin. I expect this to be the beginning of a very long and persistent mild pattern that could last most of the winter. We shall see. For one, the Farmer's Almanac does not agree with me.

Big Weather Picture Oct 20-27

More Wet Snow Possible

The weather will remain rather wintry or late fall-like this week as another low pressure area passes to our southeast, bringing us a cold rain and some wet snow. If the precipitation is heavy enough, it may change to all snow with some accumulations. I have not had a chance to look at things in great detail since I'm out of the country.

After this system passes on Wednesday, the weather will remain on the cool side of normal. The cool pattern looks to persist for at least the next week.

If this goes like a typical El Nino winter, we'll transition to a mild pattern sometime in late November. Quite likely, we'll be in the strongest El Nino since the '97-'98 winter, so the effects will probably be noticeable. Overall, I expect warm temperature and lighter than average snowfall during Dec-Jan-Feb. However, any El Nino winter can be punctuated by the occasional winter storm and a cold outbreak, making people forget the mild conditions. I'm hoping for a well-timed heavy snowfall in early December or late November to put down a good cross-country ski base for the rest of the season.

-Bob

Big Weather Picture: Oct. 12-18

The weather this coming week may be best described as "dull". We will have mostly mostly cloudy weather with occasional chances of light snow or rain as warm air attempts to move in from the southwest and our cold high pressure attempts to remain in place. Liquid equivalent precipitation may be 0.15" to 0.30". Highs will be in the 30s and 40s most of the week with lows in the 20s and 30s. The main storm track remains mostly to our south and west like it has for the past couple months. By the second half of this coming weekend (17th/18th), we'll have breezy conditions and temperatures returning to average for this time of year (near 50 for highs).

Thanks to the Volunteers at Sugar Hills

We had twelve hard working volunteers clearing the cross country ski trails at Sugar Hills. The snow and wind didn't slow these folks down. The trails are in now in great shape for the upcoming ski season. Thanks again, Boomer the Groomer

Good morning! The Northern Lights Nordic Ski Club is having a trail clearing party this Saturday (October 10th) at 9:00 a.m. at Sugar Hills Ski Area and everyone is invited! Bring gloves, handtools and chainsaws and help prepare the trails for the upcoming ski season. Call Boomer at 326.4942 with any questions. Let's meet at the Starter Shack for home made muffins, see you then, thanks.

Colder Weather on the Way, First Flakes by Friday

The early part of this week will essentially be a repeat of last week with a significant storm system moving just to our south. Again, the most rain will fall across central and southern Minnesota with amounts in excess of an inch likely in the Twin Cities, St. Cloud, Little Falls, and Morris. We sure could use those amounts here because we're about six inches short on moisture for 2009, although the Twin Cities needs it worse-- before last weeks rains, they were 14-16 inches short on moisture since June 1, 2008!

Expect rain to start Monday evening, persist throughout the nighttime and daytime Tuesday, and move out of the area Tuesday evening. Places along the Canadian border from International Falls westward may not see any rain, and amounts will be larger to the south, with nearly an inch possible in Brainerd. 0.25" looks like the most probable amount in Grand Rapids.

We'll have a brief break on Wednesday, then a strong cold front will sweep through Wednesday night, bringing a chance of showers. An Arctic air mass will then pour into the region and settle in through the upcoming weekend. Cold air aloft, combined with warmth and moisture provided by the open lakes, will produce some instability in the atmosphere, resulting in scattered rain and snow showers from Thursday through Sunday. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s. The upcoming pattern looks like a repeat of what we had over the summer except that it is now fall, and that means some freezing weather.