Quiet and Cold Weather

Our midwinter quiet stretch has begun. The Upper Midwest will be under the influence of high pressure for the next 10 days or more. Temperatures will fluctuate but be mostly below average for this time of year.

XC SKI TRAIL GROOMING REPORT - Sunday, December 27th

We're grateful for the big snow but with the high moisture it makes grooming challenging. The volunteer groomers are giving it their best shot so here's the tentative grooming report:

Sugar Hills and Blueberry Hills packed and tracked December 26. The parking lot at Blueberry is plowed but more than likely the other lots have not been plowed.
Joyce Estate and Trout Lake to be packed and tracked today.
Legion Hills to be packed and tracked tonight.
Cowhorn and River Road trails are scheduled to be packed tomorrow, Monday.
Forest History Center parking lot was not plowed so no grooming could be done.

NOTE: Blueberry Hills closed Tuesday, the 29th for High School Race.

Boomer the Groomer

Snow Hole

11:30 PM December 24.

The shadow effect of the North Shore ridge will be felt in Grand Rapids, Warba, and points northeastward toward Ely. As the air flows northwestward up the hill in Duluth, the moisture is rapidly wrung out of the air. This leaves less moisture available for places 30 - 80 miles northwest of the North Shore. Additionally, there is an area of sinking motion downstream from the ridge, which further dries the air and prevents precipitation. These effects may substantially reduce total snowfall in Grand Rapids, Ely, Warba, and areas along and just southeast of the Iron Range. It would not surprise me if total snowfall was as little as 3 or 4" in Grand Rapids.

Well see...

Heavy Snow and Wind Dec. 24-26

Heavy, wet snow and wind is likely Dec. 24-26. A strong storm system will move from eastern Oklahoma Wednesday evening to central Iowa by midday Friday. Pretty much any place in northern Minnesota has at least a chance of receiving a foot or more of snow. Places east and southeast from Grand Rapids have a chance of seeing some mixed precipitation, particularly in northwest Wisconsin.

This storm will make travel difficult over all of Minnesota, but it will very likely bring us the start of our (natural snow) ski season.

Significant Snowfall Becoming More Likely Dec. 24-25

The model forecast tracks for the major storm system that will be moving through the central U.S. over Christmas have shifted to the northwest, and it is beginning to look like most of Minnesota may see moderate to heavy snowfall from this system. The most likely area for heavy snow is still southern Minnesota, where snow totals in the 10-20 inch range look likely. In northern Minnesota, amounts of 5-8" are now becoming a possibility.

The low pressure center will move from near Dallas, TX early Wednesday evening to just south of Des Moines, IA by Friday morning. Snow will begin Wednesday afternoon in southern Minnesota and will probably reach the far northeastern part of Minnesota by late Thrusday evening. The heaviest snow will occur during the early part of the storm, but since the storm will be moving slowly, light snow may persist into Saturday.

Temperatures will cool down behind the storm, but they do not look extremely cold, and we may see warmer than average temperatures by the beginning of January.

Some snow possible Thursday/Friday Dec. 24/25

A major storm system this week may take a similar track to the one that hit southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin two weeks ago. This time, the exact track is more heavily dependent on the interaction of smaller scale weather disturbances, and that means there is a bit more uncertainty. There is also more warm air ahead of the storm, so areas such as Iowa that got all snow with the last storm may see a bit of sleet and freezing rain.

For northern Minnesota, accumulations will be heaviest to the southeast and lightest to the northwest. My initial guess is that Duluth will see 3-6", 1-3" will fall in Grand Rapids, 2-5" in Brainerd, and up to an inch will fall in Bemidji. There will be quite a bit of wind with this system as well, so that may make things feel a bit stormier than the snowfall amounts indicate.

After the storm passes, expect a day or two of colder weather, then dry weather and seasonable to mild temperatures for the rest of the holiday period.

Variable Temperatures, Little or No Snowfall Dec 12-22

The jet stream has settled into its midwinter quiet pattern, and the storm track is well to our south. Although predictability is rather low beyond a few days, I do not expect snowfall for several weeks, aside from perhaps an occasional dusting.

Temperatures will be quite variable over the next 10 days, with highs struggling to reach zero on Sunday (Dec. 13). Temperatures will also be cold on Tuesday Dec. 15, but then a warming trend will begin. Expect average to slightly above average temperatures to prevail by Dec. 18.

Southern Minnesota will see a 2-3" snowfall on Monday (Dec. 14), which should bring natural snow depth to a skiable level in the Twin Cities area. Southeastern Minnesota has up to 12" depth now, and northwestern Wisconsin near Lake Superior has snow depth in excess of a foot in places.

Light Snow Tuesday-Wednesday, Major Snowstorm Southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin

UPDATED FORECAST:

Northwest of Walker-Grand Rapids-Virginia line, accumulations will be minimal to nonexistent.

A dusting up to an inch is possible along the aforementioned line, 2-4" possible Brainerd to Duluth, 5-8" in Twin Cities. Amounts will increase rapidly going into Wisconsin and Southeast Minnesota, where amounts in excess of 8 inches (some totals well over a foot) are likely.

Beyond this storm, snowfall will be minimal for several weeks.

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OLD FORECAST:
The KAXE area (particularly in southeastern parts of the area) will be getting more snow on Tuesday-Wednesday. Accumulations will probably be in the 1-3" range in Grand Rapids, 3-6" in Brainerd, an inch or less in Bemidji, up to 6" in Duluth. Northwest Wisconsin may see more than 8 inches, and blizzard conditions may strike southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Basically, the snow will be heavier the farther southeast you go. Northwestern Minnesota will probably miss this storm.

Temperatures will fall to below zero for lows with single digits and teens for highs this week. The wind chill on Wednesday will become an issue, too.

More snow possible

It's amazing how light snow showers add up. We've got about an inch on the ground now. That doesn't seem like much, but we've got cold air in place now, and that usually means better chances of snowfall. One storm in particular will be passing southeast of us midweek next week (December 9-10). The heaviest snows associated with this storm will most likely be well southeast of us, but if the storm takes a more northwestward track we could get several inches as well. Either way, things will continue to be a lot more wintry than they were in late November. Temperatures will remain slightly below average.

Snowfall Reports from 12/1

5.7" INTERNATIONAL FALLS
5.5" BAUDETTE
5.3" ROSEAU
4.6" KABETOGAMA
3.5" LITTLEFORK
3.4" 3 E ORR
3.0" COOK
2.9" ELY
2.5" 7 NW BEMIDJI
2.0" TOWER
1.6" NORTHOME
1.0" 5 N VIRGINIA
1.0" EMBARRASS
0.1" GRAND RAPIDS

Other than occasional flurries or lake-effect snow downwind from big lakes (like Lake of the Woods), no further snow is in the forecast until at least 12/9.