Encore (Snowstorm Monday/Tuesday)

Tuesday noon update:

Not much change. Snow will end from south to north across the area this afternoon. Expect another inch or two in Grand Rapids, bringing the daily total to about 4" or so. Another 1-2" may fall tonight and Wednesday for a storm total of 4-6" in Grand Rapids. 6-11" in Bemidji and Brainerd. A foot or more will fall along the North Shore ridge if present trends continue.

Monday evening update:

Areas near Bismarck, ND have had 16-22" already and will probably get another 2-6" on top of that. This is much more of a Dakotas storm than a Minnesota storm. The models have been overforecasting snow amounts all season, and even when I compensate for that, the low end of my forecast amounts still seem to work best, so I have cut the totals back slightly. The way the dynamics of the system will play out, a moderately heavy snow makes the most sense. The storm will reach maximum intensity overnight and early Tuesday then slowly wind itself out over Minnesota late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Expect the heaviest snowfall rates to occur during the morning through early afternoon Tuesday while the storm is still at peak intensity. By late afternoon, snow will become more intermittent. Snow showers will continue Tuesday night and slowly end on Wednesday. Temperatures should remain in the upper 20s to mid 30s through Wednesday.

Storm total forecasts:
Fargo: 12-18"
Fergus Falls, Detroit Lakes: 11-16"
Bemidji, Grand Forks: 5-11"
Brainerd, Grand Rapids, Hibbing, Ely: 4-9"
Int'l Falls: 4-10"
North Shore ridge along Lake Superior: 6-11"


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Monday afternoon update: a narrow band of snow is trying to develop, roughly between Hinckley and Fergus Falls (it is already snowing near Fergus Falls). That band will persist throughout the afternoon and evening while slowly drifting northward. Any accumulations with this narrow, east-west band will probably occur west of Highway 169.

The main snowfall event may not get started until Tuesday morning in Grand Rapids, but in Fargo, it may be snowing all night. The snow will fall most heavily during the morning into early afternoon Tuesday. Scattered snow showers will persist into Wednesday morning.

Totals:

Fargo, Fergus Falls, Detroit Lakes: 12-16"
Brainerd: 8-12"
Bemidji: 7-12"
Grand Rapids, Hibbing, Ely, Int'l Falls: 4-10"
North Shore ridge along Lake Superior: 10-14"

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12:07 AM Monday: I updated the snow amounts in the Grand Rapids to reflect the greater likelihood of heavy snow. It is possible that the snowfall totals (measured in inches) could reach double digits by Wednesday morning.

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I'm not sure anyone's looking here any more, but I thought I'd comment on the next storm. This one will hit hardest exactly in the areas that don't want any precipitation... exactly in the Red River basin, upstream from Fargo. I don't know why the atmosphere has to keep repeating itself that way, but that's the way it is. The storm will develop over the central High Plains (Colorado/Nebraska) Sunday and intensify and move northeast into southern Minnesota Monday night. The storm will move very slowly northeast across Minnesota on Tuesday and continue to drop snow.

Because the system will be undergoing its intensification Sunday night through Monday night and will be slowly losing strength as it moves through Minnesota on Tuesday, the heaviest snows will fall to our west and southwest. With the track of the storm, the heaviest band of snow will fall along the North Dakota-South Dakota border to west-central Minnesota and northeastward up the Iron Range to Grand Portage. Amounts will decrease slightly from west to east across this path because the storm will start to lose its intensity along the way, but amounts will still generally be heavy. Expect 12-18" along the North Dakota-South Dakota border, about a foot from Fargo to Detroit Lakes, and 6-11" near Grand Rapids, and 4-10" in the northeastern corner of Minnesota.

As far as timing goes, the snow will start in the western Dakotas Sunday evening, reach the eastern part of the North Dakota-South Dakota border by Monday morning, Grand Rapids by the end of the day Monday. Snow will linger throughout Minnesota on Tuesday, and flurries will linger across northern Minnesota into Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will generally be in the 30s for highs and 20s for lows.