Colder Weather on the Way, First Flakes by Friday

The early part of this week will essentially be a repeat of last week with a significant storm system moving just to our south. Again, the most rain will fall across central and southern Minnesota with amounts in excess of an inch likely in the Twin Cities, St. Cloud, Little Falls, and Morris. We sure could use those amounts here because we're about six inches short on moisture for 2009, although the Twin Cities needs it worse-- before last weeks rains, they were 14-16 inches short on moisture since June 1, 2008!

Expect rain to start Monday evening, persist throughout the nighttime and daytime Tuesday, and move out of the area Tuesday evening. Places along the Canadian border from International Falls westward may not see any rain, and amounts will be larger to the south, with nearly an inch possible in Brainerd. 0.25" looks like the most probable amount in Grand Rapids.

We'll have a brief break on Wednesday, then a strong cold front will sweep through Wednesday night, bringing a chance of showers. An Arctic air mass will then pour into the region and settle in through the upcoming weekend. Cold air aloft, combined with warmth and moisture provided by the open lakes, will produce some instability in the atmosphere, resulting in scattered rain and snow showers from Thursday through Sunday. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s. The upcoming pattern looks like a repeat of what we had over the summer except that it is now fall, and that means some freezing weather.