Weather Big Picture for February 2-8 from Tornado Bob

Update (Feb 6 AM): hot on Friday, rain on Monday

The weather service says 36 for a high today, but I think it will be a lot warmer-- in the 40 to 50 degree range if we see any sun. Saturday will see a slight cooldown with a high in the mid 30s and a chance of flurries as a weak upper air disturbance passes through. Sunday will be a day between systems with highs near freezing.

Unfortunately, rain on Monday looks like a near certainty, and we'll be getting quite a bit. I hate to sound so pessimistic, but the large scale pattern screams "RAIN!!", and there's really nothing we can do about it. The low pressure center will track into northwestern Minnesota, and that will put the KAXE area on the warm side of the system. It would not surprise me to have thunderstorms as well in southern and central Minnesota. Believe it or not, I've seen more thunderstorms in Minnesota in February than snowstorms. February is just not typically a snowy month.

Once this upcoming rain passes, all indications are that we'll be in split flow, with the moisture staying well south of us and the cold air staying north. That would mean we'll have mild conditions and a slow, gradual melt throughout most of the rest of the month. Typical caveats to predicting weather beyond a week apply, but the upcoming pattern is usually a rather persistent one, so my bet is that February will end up warmer than average with below average snowfall.

Enjoy the spring conditions!

-Bob

Original (Feb 1):

My prediction for February 2 is that the ground hog will not see his shadow. It looks like spring might come early this year.

This week will be warmer than last week. We'll start out cold and windy, but temperatures really will only barely be below average. There will be a chance of snow showers very early in the week (early Monday), and the coldest temperatures in the subzero range (for lows) will occur Tuesday morning. Highs will be in the teens.

Another low pressure system will move to our north on Wednesday, bringing another shot of melting temperatures. Thereafter, it looks pretty uncertain what the temperature will do. Most indications are that we will have warm, cloudy, and drizzly weather, which can melt snow pretty quickly. There's a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts right now, so it's just about anybody's guess, but suffice it to say that the cold pattern we've been experiencing most of this winter is gone (at least for the next 10 days), and we'll probably end the week with a bit less snow than at the beginning. We'll have a chance of light rain late this week, and the warm and drizzly weather may continue into the following week, with occasional bouts of drizzle, rain, or wet snow interspersed with below freezing temperatures. To be honest, I'm really not sure what the long term will bring, but this is one of those patterns that can produce some very warm weather... or maybe not. The nonlinear behavior of the atmosphere (butterfly effect) will be on display over the next couple weeks.

The End Of January 2009

I'm a little delinquent in getting this information posted but I've been too busy skiing and enjoying the great trails.

The County groomed Wabana and Alder Pond on January 20th. They did Big Ridge and Stoney Ridge the 21st and Suomi/Amen Trails on Thursday January 29th, and I groomed Cowhorn Lake Trail the 29th too. Blueberry has been groomed this week and Sugar's skate lane was combed Friday and all trails are in good to very good condition. With the sun setting soooo late there is plenty of time to ski...we are heading to Suomi Hills right now.
Boomer The Groomer

Weather Big Picture for January 26 to February 2

Temperatures will become quite variable this week as areas of low pressure pass north of us during the middle and late portions of the week. These storms will have more effect on temperature than sensible weather, bringing only chances of light snow showers. Temperatures will begin this week in the Arctic range (highs single digits and lows approaching -20), and we will probably get one or more shots at highs in the 20s. There is a small chance we could see a brief period of above-freezing temperatures if one of these relatively dry low pressure areas brings enough warm air across us.

I think the most likely snow totals for this week will be less than about 0.1" water equivalent most places. If we get some really high snow to water ratios such as 30:1, there could be an inch or two of snow in some places, but amounts will certainly not be substantial. In fact, given our climatology, I would not expect any significant snowfall over the next month (although there sometimes are exceptions to that rule), so my updates to the blog will probably be less frequent in February.

Itasca County Grooming

Golden Anniversary River Road and Cowhorn Lake Trails were groomed on Thursday, January 22nd and are in great condition. Dogs who want to take their owners skiing are allowed on the Boomer-Blue Trail which is part of the Cowhorn Lake System south of Grand Rapids. It's a four mile round trip and snowshoers are also allowed on this trail. The Joyce Estate and Doan Lake Trails were groomed on Thursday too. Stay warm, Boomer The Groomer

Sugar Hills trail conditions

The skateing lane at Sugar Hills was groomed Friday the 23rd, The strideing track is in good shape, With the windy conditions expect some drifting in exposed spots. Dress warm and good skiing.

Bemidji Trails Report - 1/24 Weekend

Lake Bemidji State Park – Grooming planned for Thursday or before the weekend…trails in very good condition.
Hobson Forest Trail- Groomed on Thursday. Trails are in very good condition.
Montebello Trail - Montebello NiteSki on Friday night so will be groomed on Friday and regroomed on Saturday for Sunday Ski School. Well-used but good condition.
Three Island County Park - Groomed Thursday, excellent conditions.
Movil Maze Trail – Groomed on Monday, Jan. 19th. Very good to excellent skiing.
Buena Vista - Westside excellent condition, Eastside soft. Bemidji High School Pursuit Race rescheduled for Tues. 1/27.

Sugar Hills and Northern Lights Nordic Ski Club

The Sugar Hills trails were groomed today with a new track set for classic and the skate lane combed. The trail is in excellent condition with a number of ski club members skiing and enjoying the holiday today. Which reminds me....if you have not renewed your membership or would like to become a member of the Northern Lights Nordic Ski club send it in today!
Boomer The Groomer

NORTHERN LIGHTS NORDIC SKI CLUB
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Sustaining $50.00___Family $25.00 ___
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We need your membership to promote, maintain and improve Nordic skiing as a lifetime sport. Mail to: NLNSC • 33800 N. Shamrock Drive, Bovey, MN 55709