Weather Big Picture for February 2-8 from Tornado Bob

Update (Feb 6 AM): hot on Friday, rain on Monday

The weather service says 36 for a high today, but I think it will be a lot warmer-- in the 40 to 50 degree range if we see any sun. Saturday will see a slight cooldown with a high in the mid 30s and a chance of flurries as a weak upper air disturbance passes through. Sunday will be a day between systems with highs near freezing.

Unfortunately, rain on Monday looks like a near certainty, and we'll be getting quite a bit. I hate to sound so pessimistic, but the large scale pattern screams "RAIN!!", and there's really nothing we can do about it. The low pressure center will track into northwestern Minnesota, and that will put the KAXE area on the warm side of the system. It would not surprise me to have thunderstorms as well in southern and central Minnesota. Believe it or not, I've seen more thunderstorms in Minnesota in February than snowstorms. February is just not typically a snowy month.

Once this upcoming rain passes, all indications are that we'll be in split flow, with the moisture staying well south of us and the cold air staying north. That would mean we'll have mild conditions and a slow, gradual melt throughout most of the rest of the month. Typical caveats to predicting weather beyond a week apply, but the upcoming pattern is usually a rather persistent one, so my bet is that February will end up warmer than average with below average snowfall.

Enjoy the spring conditions!

-Bob

Original (Feb 1):

My prediction for February 2 is that the ground hog will not see his shadow. It looks like spring might come early this year.

This week will be warmer than last week. We'll start out cold and windy, but temperatures really will only barely be below average. There will be a chance of snow showers very early in the week (early Monday), and the coldest temperatures in the subzero range (for lows) will occur Tuesday morning. Highs will be in the teens.

Another low pressure system will move to our north on Wednesday, bringing another shot of melting temperatures. Thereafter, it looks pretty uncertain what the temperature will do. Most indications are that we will have warm, cloudy, and drizzly weather, which can melt snow pretty quickly. There's a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts right now, so it's just about anybody's guess, but suffice it to say that the cold pattern we've been experiencing most of this winter is gone (at least for the next 10 days), and we'll probably end the week with a bit less snow than at the beginning. We'll have a chance of light rain late this week, and the warm and drizzly weather may continue into the following week, with occasional bouts of drizzle, rain, or wet snow interspersed with below freezing temperatures. To be honest, I'm really not sure what the long term will bring, but this is one of those patterns that can produce some very warm weather... or maybe not. The nonlinear behavior of the atmosphere (butterfly effect) will be on display over the next couple weeks.