Sunday September 27, 2009
A cold front swept through the KAXE listening area this morning, and it has finally brought some seasonal temperatures for this time of year. Up until now, September has been the warmest month of 2009 with an average temperature, in some locations, warmer than the average temperature for July. Temperatures have been on pace to set a record for the warmest September, but the last three days of the month will have below average temperatures, so it's uncertain whether we'll actually break the record. I'm thinking we won't.
As I write this, Grand Rapids still has a shot at its driest September on record. The total in my rain guage this month has been 0.40" as of late this evening. The record is 0.54". It's possible the guage at the cooperative station has received more than my amount, but whatever the case, we're not likely to get any significant rain over the next three days, so there's a good chance we'll end up with the record. Temperatures will be slightly below average, and we may see a little frost Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning.
As October rolls in, a storm system will move into the central United States and may give us a chance of significant rain. There is some possibility the storm will stall to our southwest, leaving us dry, but hopefully it will stall close enough to give us a chance of rain. We could use it. We've been in a split flow pattern for the past month with the rainy weather staying to our south and the cold weather staying to our north-- the typical pattern for El Nino-- and it could be a prelude to the winter of 2009-2010. The depth and duration of snow cover may not be as good as it was last winter, but the temperature should be a bit warmer, making it easier to get outside.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Stagnant Pattern
I just had 0.19" on September 21, so I am at 0.23" for the month. We need another 0.31" to crawl out of last place for September. We may actually get close to that on Tuesday 9/22. The latest storm system is stalling out a little closer to us than earlier anticipated, so our chances of rain have improved!
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It looks like it could be a long time before we see any pattern change. Northern Minnesota has been underneath a very large upper level ridge of high pressure for the past three weeks. This high has been so strong, in fact, that any storm that tries to approach our area has stalled in the Dakotas, moved back westward, or dissipated completely. Consequently, we are on track to have our driest September on record. The present record stands at 0.54" in 1967, and so far (through September 19), we've only managed 0.04" according to my rain guage. With no rain in the foreseeable future (about 7-10 days), it looks like we will probably blow away the record.
The past month, we've seen only two thirds of an inch, which is near a record level for that time period. Our climate has definitely taken a shift toward more dryness.
The present pattern is one we usually get during moderate to strong El Ninos, so you should get used to this pattern.
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It looks like it could be a long time before we see any pattern change. Northern Minnesota has been underneath a very large upper level ridge of high pressure for the past three weeks. This high has been so strong, in fact, that any storm that tries to approach our area has stalled in the Dakotas, moved back westward, or dissipated completely. Consequently, we are on track to have our driest September on record. The present record stands at 0.54" in 1967, and so far (through September 19), we've only managed 0.04" according to my rain guage. With no rain in the foreseeable future (about 7-10 days), it looks like we will probably blow away the record.
The past month, we've seen only two thirds of an inch, which is near a record level for that time period. Our climate has definitely taken a shift toward more dryness.
The present pattern is one we usually get during moderate to strong El Ninos, so you should get used to this pattern.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Encore (Snowstorm Monday/Tuesday)
Tuesday noon update:
Not much change. Snow will end from south to north across the area this afternoon. Expect another inch or two in Grand Rapids, bringing the daily total to about 4" or so. Another 1-2" may fall tonight and Wednesday for a storm total of 4-6" in Grand Rapids. 6-11" in Bemidji and Brainerd. A foot or more will fall along the North Shore ridge if present trends continue.
Monday evening update:
Areas near Bismarck, ND have had 16-22" already and will probably get another 2-6" on top of that. This is much more of a Dakotas storm than a Minnesota storm. The models have been overforecasting snow amounts all season, and even when I compensate for that, the low end of my forecast amounts still seem to work best, so I have cut the totals back slightly. The way the dynamics of the system will play out, a moderately heavy snow makes the most sense. The storm will reach maximum intensity overnight and early Tuesday then slowly wind itself out over Minnesota late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Expect the heaviest snowfall rates to occur during the morning through early afternoon Tuesday while the storm is still at peak intensity. By late afternoon, snow will become more intermittent. Snow showers will continue Tuesday night and slowly end on Wednesday. Temperatures should remain in the upper 20s to mid 30s through Wednesday.
Storm total forecasts:
Fargo: 12-18"
Fergus Falls, Detroit Lakes: 11-16"
Bemidji, Grand Forks: 5-11"
Brainerd, Grand Rapids, Hibbing, Ely: 4-9"
Int'l Falls: 4-10"
North Shore ridge along Lake Superior: 6-11"
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Monday afternoon update: a narrow band of snow is trying to develop, roughly between Hinckley and Fergus Falls (it is already snowing near Fergus Falls). That band will persist throughout the afternoon and evening while slowly drifting northward. Any accumulations with this narrow, east-west band will probably occur west of Highway 169.
The main snowfall event may not get started until Tuesday morning in Grand Rapids, but in Fargo, it may be snowing all night. The snow will fall most heavily during the morning into early afternoon Tuesday. Scattered snow showers will persist into Wednesday morning.
Totals:
Fargo, Fergus Falls, Detroit Lakes: 12-16"
Brainerd: 8-12"
Bemidji: 7-12"
Grand Rapids, Hibbing, Ely, Int'l Falls: 4-10"
North Shore ridge along Lake Superior: 10-14"
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12:07 AM Monday: I updated the snow amounts in the Grand Rapids to reflect the greater likelihood of heavy snow. It is possible that the snowfall totals (measured in inches) could reach double digits by Wednesday morning.
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I'm not sure anyone's looking here any more, but I thought I'd comment on the next storm. This one will hit hardest exactly in the areas that don't want any precipitation... exactly in the Red River basin, upstream from Fargo. I don't know why the atmosphere has to keep repeating itself that way, but that's the way it is. The storm will develop over the central High Plains (Colorado/Nebraska) Sunday and intensify and move northeast into southern Minnesota Monday night. The storm will move very slowly northeast across Minnesota on Tuesday and continue to drop snow.
Because the system will be undergoing its intensification Sunday night through Monday night and will be slowly losing strength as it moves through Minnesota on Tuesday, the heaviest snows will fall to our west and southwest. With the track of the storm, the heaviest band of snow will fall along the North Dakota-South Dakota border to west-central Minnesota and northeastward up the Iron Range to Grand Portage. Amounts will decrease slightly from west to east across this path because the storm will start to lose its intensity along the way, but amounts will still generally be heavy. Expect 12-18" along the North Dakota-South Dakota border, about a foot from Fargo to Detroit Lakes, and 6-11" near Grand Rapids, and 4-10" in the northeastern corner of Minnesota.
As far as timing goes, the snow will start in the western Dakotas Sunday evening, reach the eastern part of the North Dakota-South Dakota border by Monday morning, Grand Rapids by the end of the day Monday. Snow will linger throughout Minnesota on Tuesday, and flurries will linger across northern Minnesota into Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will generally be in the 30s for highs and 20s for lows.
Not much change. Snow will end from south to north across the area this afternoon. Expect another inch or two in Grand Rapids, bringing the daily total to about 4" or so. Another 1-2" may fall tonight and Wednesday for a storm total of 4-6" in Grand Rapids. 6-11" in Bemidji and Brainerd. A foot or more will fall along the North Shore ridge if present trends continue.
Monday evening update:
Areas near Bismarck, ND have had 16-22" already and will probably get another 2-6" on top of that. This is much more of a Dakotas storm than a Minnesota storm. The models have been overforecasting snow amounts all season, and even when I compensate for that, the low end of my forecast amounts still seem to work best, so I have cut the totals back slightly. The way the dynamics of the system will play out, a moderately heavy snow makes the most sense. The storm will reach maximum intensity overnight and early Tuesday then slowly wind itself out over Minnesota late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Expect the heaviest snowfall rates to occur during the morning through early afternoon Tuesday while the storm is still at peak intensity. By late afternoon, snow will become more intermittent. Snow showers will continue Tuesday night and slowly end on Wednesday. Temperatures should remain in the upper 20s to mid 30s through Wednesday.
Storm total forecasts:
Fargo: 12-18"
Fergus Falls, Detroit Lakes: 11-16"
Bemidji, Grand Forks: 5-11"
Brainerd, Grand Rapids, Hibbing, Ely: 4-9"
Int'l Falls: 4-10"
North Shore ridge along Lake Superior: 6-11"
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Monday afternoon update: a narrow band of snow is trying to develop, roughly between Hinckley and Fergus Falls (it is already snowing near Fergus Falls). That band will persist throughout the afternoon and evening while slowly drifting northward. Any accumulations with this narrow, east-west band will probably occur west of Highway 169.
The main snowfall event may not get started until Tuesday morning in Grand Rapids, but in Fargo, it may be snowing all night. The snow will fall most heavily during the morning into early afternoon Tuesday. Scattered snow showers will persist into Wednesday morning.
Totals:
Fargo, Fergus Falls, Detroit Lakes: 12-16"
Brainerd: 8-12"
Bemidji: 7-12"
Grand Rapids, Hibbing, Ely, Int'l Falls: 4-10"
North Shore ridge along Lake Superior: 10-14"
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12:07 AM Monday: I updated the snow amounts in the Grand Rapids to reflect the greater likelihood of heavy snow. It is possible that the snowfall totals (measured in inches) could reach double digits by Wednesday morning.
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I'm not sure anyone's looking here any more, but I thought I'd comment on the next storm. This one will hit hardest exactly in the areas that don't want any precipitation... exactly in the Red River basin, upstream from Fargo. I don't know why the atmosphere has to keep repeating itself that way, but that's the way it is. The storm will develop over the central High Plains (Colorado/Nebraska) Sunday and intensify and move northeast into southern Minnesota Monday night. The storm will move very slowly northeast across Minnesota on Tuesday and continue to drop snow.
Because the system will be undergoing its intensification Sunday night through Monday night and will be slowly losing strength as it moves through Minnesota on Tuesday, the heaviest snows will fall to our west and southwest. With the track of the storm, the heaviest band of snow will fall along the North Dakota-South Dakota border to west-central Minnesota and northeastward up the Iron Range to Grand Portage. Amounts will decrease slightly from west to east across this path because the storm will start to lose its intensity along the way, but amounts will still generally be heavy. Expect 12-18" along the North Dakota-South Dakota border, about a foot from Fargo to Detroit Lakes, and 6-11" near Grand Rapids, and 4-10" in the northeastern corner of Minnesota.
As far as timing goes, the snow will start in the western Dakotas Sunday evening, reach the eastern part of the North Dakota-South Dakota border by Monday morning, Grand Rapids by the end of the day Monday. Snow will linger throughout Minnesota on Tuesday, and flurries will linger across northern Minnesota into Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will generally be in the 30s for highs and 20s for lows.
Monday, March 16, 2009
End of season
I was skiing yesterday (March 15) at Wabana, and there was still plenty of snow. The snowpack we have this March is probably the largest in terms of water content of any of past four years, but the weather pattern in place now will bring decidedly above average temperatures to northern Minnesota. This pattern will persist through the remainder of March, which means an accelerated melt will continue, likely until all the snow is gone. Anyone wishing to find snow in the woods will find it for a while, but the snowpack will be diminishing at a relatively rapid pace.
I would also guess (it's just a guess, but an educated one) that the ice will be off area lakes ahead of schedule despite the cold winter. There is no snow in the forecast, and the temperatures will mostly be above average. The ice-out date is quite sensitive to late season snow because the snow reflects sunlight very effectively.
It's been nice meeting everyone on the trails this season. Thanks again to the groomers for their hard work. Until next winter...
-Bob
I would also guess (it's just a guess, but an educated one) that the ice will be off area lakes ahead of schedule despite the cold winter. There is no snow in the forecast, and the temperatures will mostly be above average. The ice-out date is quite sensitive to late season snow because the snow reflects sunlight very effectively.
It's been nice meeting everyone on the trails this season. Thanks again to the groomers for their hard work. Until next winter...
-Bob
Friday, March 13, 2009
Sugar Hills trail conditions
The grooming at Sugar Hills went well, the trail system is 100% groomed. It should be excellent skiing the next couple of days. If the temperatures rise into the forties the trails will suffer, especially the south facing hills. I would expect the skiing to be better earlier in the day, take care and have fun.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Get your skiing in now
(Please see also the grooming reports below)
After the coldest possible weather pattern now, one of our warmest patterns will arrive this week.
High temperature forecasts*:
Saturday 3/14: 47-51
Sunday 3/15: 49-54
Monday 3/16: 50-56
Tuesday 3/17: 40-50
Wednesday 3/18: 34-40
Thursday 3/19: 35-42
Low temperatures may stay above freezing Monday night and/or Tuesday night, but other nights, lows should be below freezing.
Many thanks to the groomers for getting out quickly in these final days of excellent snow.
After the coldest possible weather pattern now, one of our warmest patterns will arrive this week.
High temperature forecasts*:
Saturday 3/14: 47-51
Sunday 3/15: 49-54
Monday 3/16: 50-56
Tuesday 3/17: 40-50
Wednesday 3/18: 34-40
Thursday 3/19: 35-42
Low temperatures may stay above freezing Monday night and/or Tuesday night, but other nights, lows should be below freezing.
Many thanks to the groomers for getting out quickly in these final days of excellent snow.
Itasca County Ski Trails
Legion, Cowhorn, Golden Anniversary and Alder Pond were groomed today after the six inch snowfall yesterday. County plans to groom Wabana and Big Ridge on Thursday but will not get Suomi/Amen groomed this week.
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