Weather Big Picture for February 2-8 from Tornado Bob

Update (Feb 6 AM): hot on Friday, rain on Monday

The weather service says 36 for a high today, but I think it will be a lot warmer-- in the 40 to 50 degree range if we see any sun. Saturday will see a slight cooldown with a high in the mid 30s and a chance of flurries as a weak upper air disturbance passes through. Sunday will be a day between systems with highs near freezing.

Unfortunately, rain on Monday looks like a near certainty, and we'll be getting quite a bit. I hate to sound so pessimistic, but the large scale pattern screams "RAIN!!", and there's really nothing we can do about it. The low pressure center will track into northwestern Minnesota, and that will put the KAXE area on the warm side of the system. It would not surprise me to have thunderstorms as well in southern and central Minnesota. Believe it or not, I've seen more thunderstorms in Minnesota in February than snowstorms. February is just not typically a snowy month.

Once this upcoming rain passes, all indications are that we'll be in split flow, with the moisture staying well south of us and the cold air staying north. That would mean we'll have mild conditions and a slow, gradual melt throughout most of the rest of the month. Typical caveats to predicting weather beyond a week apply, but the upcoming pattern is usually a rather persistent one, so my bet is that February will end up warmer than average with below average snowfall.

Enjoy the spring conditions!

-Bob

Original (Feb 1):

My prediction for February 2 is that the ground hog will not see his shadow. It looks like spring might come early this year.

This week will be warmer than last week. We'll start out cold and windy, but temperatures really will only barely be below average. There will be a chance of snow showers very early in the week (early Monday), and the coldest temperatures in the subzero range (for lows) will occur Tuesday morning. Highs will be in the teens.

Another low pressure system will move to our north on Wednesday, bringing another shot of melting temperatures. Thereafter, it looks pretty uncertain what the temperature will do. Most indications are that we will have warm, cloudy, and drizzly weather, which can melt snow pretty quickly. There's a lot of uncertainty in the forecasts right now, so it's just about anybody's guess, but suffice it to say that the cold pattern we've been experiencing most of this winter is gone (at least for the next 10 days), and we'll probably end the week with a bit less snow than at the beginning. We'll have a chance of light rain late this week, and the warm and drizzly weather may continue into the following week, with occasional bouts of drizzle, rain, or wet snow interspersed with below freezing temperatures. To be honest, I'm really not sure what the long term will bring, but this is one of those patterns that can produce some very warm weather... or maybe not. The nonlinear behavior of the atmosphere (butterfly effect) will be on display over the next couple weeks.

The End Of January 2009

I'm a little delinquent in getting this information posted but I've been too busy skiing and enjoying the great trails.

The County groomed Wabana and Alder Pond on January 20th. They did Big Ridge and Stoney Ridge the 21st and Suomi/Amen Trails on Thursday January 29th, and I groomed Cowhorn Lake Trail the 29th too. Blueberry has been groomed this week and Sugar's skate lane was combed Friday and all trails are in good to very good condition. With the sun setting soooo late there is plenty of time to ski...we are heading to Suomi Hills right now.
Boomer The Groomer

Weather Big Picture for January 26 to February 2

Temperatures will become quite variable this week as areas of low pressure pass north of us during the middle and late portions of the week. These storms will have more effect on temperature than sensible weather, bringing only chances of light snow showers. Temperatures will begin this week in the Arctic range (highs single digits and lows approaching -20), and we will probably get one or more shots at highs in the 20s. There is a small chance we could see a brief period of above-freezing temperatures if one of these relatively dry low pressure areas brings enough warm air across us.

I think the most likely snow totals for this week will be less than about 0.1" water equivalent most places. If we get some really high snow to water ratios such as 30:1, there could be an inch or two of snow in some places, but amounts will certainly not be substantial. In fact, given our climatology, I would not expect any significant snowfall over the next month (although there sometimes are exceptions to that rule), so my updates to the blog will probably be less frequent in February.

Itasca County Grooming

Golden Anniversary River Road and Cowhorn Lake Trails were groomed on Thursday, January 22nd and are in great condition. Dogs who want to take their owners skiing are allowed on the Boomer-Blue Trail which is part of the Cowhorn Lake System south of Grand Rapids. It's a four mile round trip and snowshoers are also allowed on this trail. The Joyce Estate and Doan Lake Trails were groomed on Thursday too. Stay warm, Boomer The Groomer

Sugar Hills trail conditions

The skateing lane at Sugar Hills was groomed Friday the 23rd, The strideing track is in good shape, With the windy conditions expect some drifting in exposed spots. Dress warm and good skiing.

Bemidji Trails Report - 1/24 Weekend

Lake Bemidji State Park – Grooming planned for Thursday or before the weekend…trails in very good condition.
Hobson Forest Trail- Groomed on Thursday. Trails are in very good condition.
Montebello Trail - Montebello NiteSki on Friday night so will be groomed on Friday and regroomed on Saturday for Sunday Ski School. Well-used but good condition.
Three Island County Park - Groomed Thursday, excellent conditions.
Movil Maze Trail – Groomed on Monday, Jan. 19th. Very good to excellent skiing.
Buena Vista - Westside excellent condition, Eastside soft. Bemidji High School Pursuit Race rescheduled for Tues. 1/27.

Sugar Hills and Northern Lights Nordic Ski Club

The Sugar Hills trails were groomed today with a new track set for classic and the skate lane combed. The trail is in excellent condition with a number of ski club members skiing and enjoying the holiday today. Which reminds me....if you have not renewed your membership or would like to become a member of the Northern Lights Nordic Ski club send it in today!
Boomer The Groomer

NORTHERN LIGHTS NORDIC SKI CLUB
Name ________________________________________
Address______________________________________
Telephone____________________
EMail________________________

Membership fee enclosed: Benefactor $100.00___
Sustaining $50.00___Family $25.00 ___
Individual $15.00___ Student $5.00___

We need your membership to promote, maintain and improve Nordic skiing as a lifetime sport. Mail to: NLNSC • 33800 N. Shamrock Drive, Bovey, MN 55709

Fond Du Lac ski trail

The trail was groomed today, 1/19/2009, and a fresh track set. We have 14" of snow on the ground, with a 4-6" base. Looked like lots of folks took advantage of the nice weather this past weekend and got in some skiing. The trail is in excellent condition, enjoy the mild temps forecast for this week. Lonny Gervais

Weather Picture for January 19-25 from Tornado Bob

Friday update (Jan. 23):

The Arctic air is here once again, and highs will be in the single digits above and below zero for the next several days. By Tuesday, the temperature will moderate substantially, and I think we'll begin a period of below average snowfall and average to above average temperatures that will last perhaps a couple weeks or more (snowfall over the past two weeks has already been below average). The large scale weather pattern is becoming less favorable for snow, but that's normally the case at this time of year. The pattern will also feature a rather large and persistent area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska into the Canadian high plains. The counterclockwise circulation around this area of low pressure forces any Arctic air to either stay in Alaska or to move south over the Pacific, where it is quickly moderated due to the very large heat capacity of the ocean. This pattern is also a dry one for us because it does not allow large temperature contrasts (which is necessary to make snow) to develop over our area even though low pressure areas might move through.

(Monday's post)

A couple inches of light, dendritic snow along with warmer weather made for some excellent skiing this weekend. I skied the trails at Sugar Hills, and conditions were fabulous.

We will have continued warmer weather this week. There is some risk of melting temperatures, especially around midweek, but otherwise, the weather should be conducive to excellent skiing. We'll have a chance of light snow or flurries Monday then generally dry weather through midweek, although occasional clouds and maybe a little freezing drizzle may be found. The warmest day looks to be Wednesday with highs near freezing.

Another Arctic high pressure area will settle into the area by this weekend, and that will mean a return to colder temperatures, but the timing of this new Arctic intrusion is somewhat uncertain, as are the chances of snow late this week. Either way, it looks like we'll have bitter cold again this coming weekend, with highs near zero and lows around -20 F-- probably not a great temperature for the races at Mt. Itasca this weekend, but there should be a little fresh snow.

In the long range, we may be entering a somewhat snowier period again (maybe you didn't notice the decreased snowfall over the past two weeks) late this week and next week.

ICC/UofM North Central Exp Station 8 k Trail

1-13-09 a new track was set and the trail is in very good condition.

Sugar Hills trail conditions

1-12-2009
The Sugar Hills system was groomed Monday afternoon, All trails were groomed with the classic track reset. Skiing should be excellent, cold snow will slow things down some. Dress warm, and enjoy.

Weather Picture for January 12-18 from Tornado Bob

1/16 update: moderate temps and light snow/flurries this weekend, thaw looking less likely next week.

Well, there has been some pretty warm air building over the Prairie Provinces of Canada, the Yukon, and Alaska. Any change from our cold, northerly upper air flow to a more westerly or northwesterly upper air flow would bring this warm airmass over Minnesota, but it looks like the northerly flow will be quite stubborn through Monday. The window of opportunity for a thaw will probably close about midweek as another surge of Arctic air descends to our latitude, and given the stubbornness of the northerly flow, it is conceivable that we could escape without a thaw and preserve our good snow conditions. We will have a chance of light snow or flurries throughout much of the weekend.

Thus, my earlier (worst case) prediction for melting snow and temperatures in the 40s is looking somewhat silly right now! As a skier, I find that to be good news.

(Original post) Bitter cold this week followed by a thaw early next week, then back in the deep freeze.

The cold airmass that has been residing in Canada for most of the winter so far will be getting "booted" out, so to speak, and will come blasting through the central U.S. A large amplification of the upper air pattern is occurring this week and is responsible for driving the coldest air in Alaska and Yukon southward toward us and replacing it with anomalously warm air (for Alaska and the Yukon). As this process occurs, our upstream air source becomes much warmer, and there is no way to avoid a warm spell.

Thus, we will have a fairly "typical" Arctic blast this week with some high temperatures near zero or in the single digits below zero and lows reaching the -20s and -30s (the coldest spots like Embarrass will probably reach -40). By this weekend, the warmer temperatures will begin to move in, and by Monday, we'll probably high high temperatures above freezing. It's rare to have this sort of pattern evolution without seeing temperatures reach into the 40s, so expect some melting to occur early next week. The warm spell will probably not last very long, as the medium range models are generally indicating a rapid return back to a cold and dry weather pattern by midweek. Often, these transitions happen a little more slowly than expected, so what I describe above may be delayed by a day or two.

As far as snowfall is concerned, we may have some light amounts Tuesday night as the last in a series of Alberta Clipper systems moves through southwestern Minnesota, immediately ahead of the coldest air, but we are generally in a dry pattern, and no major snowfalls are on the horizon.

County/Federal Ski Trails

Here's the update, all trails are in good condition with the Joyce Estate being very good!

Groomed 1-5-09 Alder Pond
Groomed 1-6-09 Suomi/Amen and Joyce Estate
Groomed 1-7-09 Big Ridge
Groomed 1-8-09 Wabana
Groomed 1-9-09 Stoney Ridge

Bemidji Trails Update

The Bemidji area ski trails have all been groomed this week and are in very good to excellent condition. These trails include the lighted Montebello Trail, Lake Bemidji State Park, Movil Maze, Hobson Forest, Three Island County Park and Buena Vista. Additionally, Bemidji's newest trail system, Fern Lake, located south of Bemidji has now received enough snow to be groomed and is in decent shape. This new 5 km trail was dozed in at the end of November and has required additional snow to cover rough spots. To get directions to Fern Lake or any other Bemidji ski trail call the Home Place Bike and Ski Shop at (218) 751-3456. The Bemidji groomers will welcome a slow down in snowfall. It has been a challenge to keep up with the big dumps of snow over the Holidays. However, this is a good "problem" to have - much better to be challenged with lots of snow than to reckon with little or no snow as we had to do a few years back. We are on a roll now - two back to back "real" Minnesota winters in a row.

Bruce Slinkman

Cowhorn and River Road Trails

These trails were groomed today and are in terrific condition.

To check out other cross country ski trails in the area, click on the Trail Conditions icon on the KAXE main page and you will find all trails listed. Click on the the name of the trail and you'll see lots of information including location, map, length of trail and skill level. Lots of choices for all levels of skiers. See ya on the trail, Boomer The Groomer

Sugar Hills trail conditions

Grooming done Wednesday afternoon, the SNAG loop has been groomed and tracked, the rest of the system the skate lane was combed flat, the sub-zero lows should set the trails up nicely. Skiing should be excellent.

Coach's Corner by Mark Walters BHS Nordic Ski Coach

With the holidays behind us, the racing season is in full swing. Many section 8 teams did manage to compete over the holiday season. On December 30th most of us were at the Blueberry Hills Invite hosted by Deer River or at the Northland Arboretum in Brainerd on the 2nd of January.
The Blueberry Hills meet was a 5 KM skating event. The boys race was won by Bemidji's Zac Oelrich in a time of 15:33 and the girls event was won by Summer Ellefson in a time of 18:32. It was a cool day with new snow and freshly groomed conditions. This meant some hard glide wax to get any type of ski to move quickly. The Northland Arboretum meet was a 6 KM skating event. The boys race was won by Conrad Roberts (Battle Lake) in a time of 16:11 and the girls race was won by Little Falls Beth Hauer in a time of 19:27. Another very cool day with race time in the single digits.
These cold days with fresh snow are more conducive to northern Minnesota skiing. This requires the ski base to be prepped with a hard/cold wax to glide. The hard wax causes friction between the ski base and the sharp snow crystals thus giving a small amount of water to allow the ski to glide. Some of our favorite waxes for these conditions are; Start Green, Rex Green, Toko Blue, or Swix Green. The Start Green wax seems to be a real favorite of many skiers.
Start Green needs to be applied in multiple layers to get the best results. Each layer should be scraped cold and brushed out thoroughly to get the best results. A sharp scraper and multiple light passes with the scraper give the best/safest method of removing such a hard wax. It should shine up very black and glossy if the finish is good. Good luck and stay warm.
Coach W

Weather Picture for January 5-11 from Tornado Bob

(Thursday afternoon update):

The active, snowy weather pattern we've been in since December 5 is now drawing to a close. We will continue to have some rounds of light snow or flurries, but no significant snowfalls (1" or greater) are in sight. The Alberta Clipper storm track has shifted south of us and will be through western and southern Minnesota for the next few days before it disappears entirely as the upper level flow becomes more northerly and dry. Once the more northerly flow becomes established, it will drive some bitterly cold Arctic airmasses into the northern U.S. Right now, that transition looks to happen about Tuesday-Wednesday of early next week, but the timing of that transition seems to keep getting delayed, so there's some possibility it could happen later in the week, but I do think it will eventually happen. It will mean highs in the subzero (F) range for a few days and lows in the -20s or -30s (and -40 or so in the coldest spots).

The usual evolution after such a bitter Arctic outbreak is for the pattern to become much milder as the Arctic air source is exhausted, but that milder pattern may be a couple weeks away. In either case, the weather will probably be drier than average for the rest of January.

(Original):

I measured 5.2" new snow in Grand Rapids over the weekend. We certainly have enough snow now to keep the trails in pretty good shape for a while.

It will once again be a relatively cold week this week but no mega deep-freeze weather. We should have highs in the single digits and low teens and lows mostly below zero. It's still a good time to be applying that low temperature wax. There are some hints that a milder weather pattern may begin sometime around the January 15or so, but until then, expect below average temperatures.

Weather systems will affect us this week on Tuesday and Friday. On Tuesday, a trough of low pressure will move into Minnesota, but the system will be very moisture-starved, so I expect only a dusting of snow to fall. On Friday, a somewhat stronger system will be capable of producing a band of 2-6" snows, most likely just south of Brainerd, but there's definitely a chance Grand Rapids could see some modest accumulating snows as well.

Fond Du Lac Ski Trail

Trail is in very good condition, the front loops were widened and leveled with a new track set and the back loops had a new track set today, 01/04/2009. There is 14" of snow on the ground with a 5-8" base. With the cold temps today the track should set up well. Lonny Gervais

Sugar Hills trail conditions

The Sugar Hills trail system has been 90% groomed and tracked,only a last portion of The Thunders Trail beginning at the Rajala intersection and the SNAG Loop are not completed. With the expected sub-zero temperatures tonight the trail should firm up nicely.

Legion

Legion trails were packed, combed and tracked this morning. Dress warm and enjoy skiing.

Rick McDonald

Snowfall Forecast: Saturday January 3

The sustained heavy snowfall rates really have not materialized as I thought this afternoon, and the snow:liquid ratios have probably been a little closer to 10:1. Thus, I think the totals will be a little less than the 5-10" I earlier thought would fall. I think the totals will still reach the 4-6" range in the Grand Rapids area, perhaps up to 7" if we get a heavy burst of snow between now and 9PM, but probably no more than that. Some areas south of Grand Rapids might see only about 3". As of 4:25 PM, the heaviest snow should be over Grand Rapids, and the radar is indicating moderate snow, but only a few flakes are falling.

Temperatures should reach about 20 degrees F by late afternoon, drop into the teens tonight, then drop further to around zero by the end of the day Sunday. Sunday night the temperature may well drop to -20 or colder.

Enjoy the new snow!

Sugar Hills trail conditions

The entire trail system was groomed and tracked 1/2/09, during the day. There was some damage from snowmobiles on the East Loop, so it will still be a little rough in that area. Snowmobiles had also use a portion of the Swamp bypass, which was easier to repair. Take care and good skiing.