Monday, January 19, 2009

Weather Picture for January 19-25 from Tornado Bob



Friday update (Jan. 23):

The Arctic air is here once again, and highs will be in the single digits above and below zero for the next several days. By Tuesday, the temperature will moderate substantially, and I think we'll begin a period of below average snowfall and average to above average temperatures that will last perhaps a couple weeks or more (snowfall over the past two weeks has already been below average). The large scale weather pattern is becoming less favorable for snow, but that's normally the case at this time of year. The pattern will also feature a rather large and persistent area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska into the Canadian high plains. The counterclockwise circulation around this area of low pressure forces any Arctic air to either stay in Alaska or to move south over the Pacific, where it is quickly moderated due to the very large heat capacity of the ocean. This pattern is also a dry one for us because it does not allow large temperature contrasts (which is necessary to make snow) to develop over our area even though low pressure areas might move through.

(Monday's post)

A couple inches of light, dendritic snow along with warmer weather made for some excellent skiing this weekend. I skied the trails at Sugar Hills, and conditions were fabulous.

We will have continued warmer weather this week. There is some risk of melting temperatures, especially around midweek, but otherwise, the weather should be conducive to excellent skiing. We'll have a chance of light snow or flurries Monday then generally dry weather through midweek, although occasional clouds and maybe a little freezing drizzle may be found. The warmest day looks to be Wednesday with highs near freezing.

Another Arctic high pressure area will settle into the area by this weekend, and that will mean a return to colder temperatures, but the timing of this new Arctic intrusion is somewhat uncertain, as are the chances of snow late this week. Either way, it looks like we'll have bitter cold again this coming weekend, with highs near zero and lows around -20 F-- probably not a great temperature for the races at Mt. Itasca this weekend, but there should be a little fresh snow.

In the long range, we may be entering a somewhat snowier period again (maybe you didn't notice the decreased snowfall over the past two weeks) late this week and next week.

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