Wednesday update: Colder than average temperatures will round out the week with highs in the single digits to teens and lows just below zero. We will have a chance of light snow or snow showers Friday with a dusting to half inch of accumulation. Next week will bring more chances of snow-- greatest along the Baudette to International Falls snowbelt that seems to be the epicenter for snowfall this season.
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Slightly snowier... maybe.
First of all, many thanks to the groomers for getting to many of the trails after the rain last week. It's nice to have another couple weeks to ski.
An area of low pressure will be slowly organizing over the next couple days in the central United States. Also, an upper level weather disturbance will be moving across southern Canada. Eventually, these two systems will merge into one large storm system over Michigan. As this happens, scattered areas of light snow will be present over the area through Wednesday. The heaviest amounts will be along the international border, where 3" will likely fall on top of what has already fallen Monday morning. Another band of 3" or so will be found across northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. In the KAXE listening area, this week has a better chance than any of the last four weeks for a snowfall in the 1-2" range. Still, I'd rate that chance at only 30-40% in Grand Rapids and Bemidji with the most likely amount in the 0.2" to 0.5" range. The storm system will depart our area Wednesday night.
On Friday, a fairly intense but moisture-starved low pressure system will drop south out of Canada and bring more light snow to the area. Amounts will most likely be in the 0.1-0.5" range.
Temperatures will be mild Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 20s and lows generally no colder than about 20, but as the storm system departs, it will pull in colder air, and highs Thursday and Friday will be mostly in the low-mid teens with lows near zero. The weather for the Birkie on Saturday looks breezy (northwest winds) with highs in the mid teens.
We're entering what typically is our "second season" for snowfall. As I'm looking into the "dreamland" portion of the numerical model prognostications, I'm starting to see indications for a storm somewhere in the central U.S. in the February 23-26 time period. However, the pattern evolution leading up to next week does not remind me of anything that leads up to a significant snow event for us. In particular, I think the pattern may favor rain rather than snow, but it's pretty hard to tell so far in advance.
-Bob
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