Weather Big Picture for February 9-15

Update (Saturday):

It's been six weeks since the last >1" snowfall in Grand Rapids. We could use one now, but the pattern remains unfavorable for the next couple weeks at least. Along the Canadian border, it's been an entirely different story. International Falls has doubled our snowfall this season, and they've been routinely getting 2" snowfalls. Perhaps Bemidji and Grand Rapids could see another light dusting (~0.1") on Monday as yet another system moves along the Canadian border to the North Shore with 2-4". On the positive side, we've still got snow (there's no snow left in southern Minnesota), and Boomer is grooming the trails. Temperatures will be below average this weekend with highs in the low teens recovering to near average (highs in the 20s) during the week.

Original (Sunday evening):
We'll be getting some rain this week in addition to a 36-48 hour period of melting snow. The high temperatures in the 30s on Friday and Sunday did not do much damage to the ski trails because the clear skies, low humidity, and brief period of warmth kept prevented much melting. This time, however, the persistent, cloudy, drizzly/rainy weather we are about to experience will definitely diminish the snow pack. I'm not sure how the groomers deal with this type of situation, but my best estimate is the temperature will climb above freezing Monday morning and hover in the 34-38 degree range until Tuesday night when it drops back to around freezing, but it could be as long as Wednesday evening before the temperature drops enough to refreeze things. Total rainfall will probably be about 0.5" in Grand Rapids. My guess is the snow depth in the woods will diminish from about 15-18" now to about 9-14" by Tuesday night. I'm not great at predicting snow melt, but I think there may some opportunity to groom the trails after this system if one gets out shortly after freezup and before the slush gets too hard. (FYI, I skied Suomi this weekend, and Boomer and company did a fantastic job there on Friday).

Thereafter, the rest of the week should be dry. Temperatures will fall to slightly below average by this weekend with highs in the teens and lows near zero. Looking farther ahead, the large scale pattern looks unfavorable for new snow.

Do be careful driving over the next couple days. Even if the air temperature is warm, the roads are still cold after a lot of subzero weather this winter, so driving may be quite icy-- especially on side roads.